As of mid-June 2026, 22 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, encompassing both pure retirements and bids for other offices such as Senate seats. Trader consensus clusters around the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets because filing deadlines and primary seasons in remaining states could still prompt additional departures, while historical patterns show retirements often accelerate closer to election cycles. Factors sustaining the tight spread include the relatively low current total compared with prior midterms, limited recent high-profile Democratic exits, and uncertainty over whether institutional frustrations or redistricting effects will trigger further announcements. Separation in the market could emerge from late-cycle decisions by senior members or shifts in the broader electoral environment affecting retirement incentives.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트24–27 38%
20–23 36.4%
36–39 16.2%
28–31 9%
$33,901 거래량
$33,901 거래량
2026.08.31
20명 미만
3%
20–23
36%
24–27
38%
28–31
9%
32–35
11%
36–39
9%
40명 이상
2%
24–27 38%
20–23 36.4%
36–39 16.2%
28–31 9%
$33,901 거래량
$33,901 거래량
2026.08.31
20명 미만
$17,186 거래량
3%
20–23
$5,552 거래량
36%
24–27
$4,380 거래량
38%
28–31
$1,221 거래량
9%
32–35
$3,797 거래량
11%
36–39
$828 거래량
9%
40명 이상
$938 거래량
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-June 2026, 22 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, encompassing both pure retirements and bids for other offices such as Senate seats. Trader consensus clusters around the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets because filing deadlines and primary seasons in remaining states could still prompt additional departures, while historical patterns show retirements often accelerate closer to election cycles. Factors sustaining the tight spread include the relatively low current total compared with prior midterms, limited recent high-profile Democratic exits, and uncertainty over whether institutional frustrations or redistricting effects will trigger further announcements. Separation in the market could emerge from late-cycle decisions by senior members or shifts in the broader electoral environment affecting retirement incentives.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
거래량
$33,901종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-June 2026, 22 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, encompassing both pure retirements and bids for other offices such as Senate seats. Trader consensus clusters around the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets because filing deadlines and primary seasons in remaining states could still prompt additional departures, while historical patterns show retirements often accelerate closer to election cycles. Factors sustaining the tight spread include the relatively low current total compared with prior midterms, limited recent high-profile Democratic exits, and uncertainty over whether institutional frustrations or redistricting effects will trigger further announcements. Separation in the market could emerge from late-cycle decisions by senior members or shifts in the broader electoral environment affecting retirement incentives.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$33,901종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-June 2026, 22 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, encompassing both pure retirements and bids for other offices such as Senate seats. Trader consensus clusters around the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets because filing deadlines and primary seasons in remaining states could still prompt additional departures, while historical patterns show retirements often accelerate closer to election cycles. Factors sustaining the tight spread include the relatively low current total compared with prior midterms, limited recent high-profile Democratic exits, and uncertainty over whether institutional frustrations or redistricting effects will trigger further announcements. Separation in the market could emerge from late-cycle decisions by senior members or shifts in the broader electoral environment affecting retirement incentives.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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