Recent announcements from roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents, including several senior members citing age and the demands of continued service, have established a baseline for departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders appear to anticipate additional retirements or moves to other offices in the months before filing deadlines, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where totals rose substantially after early spring. Factors such as post-redistricting district changes, partisan polarization, and individual career considerations could accelerate further exits, while sustained party leadership pressure or favorable polling in competitive seats might encourage some members to remain. This dynamic supports current positioning around the 32–35 range as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands reflecting uncertainty over the final count.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.2%
$31,654 거래량
$31,654 거래량
2026.08.31
20명 미만
3%
20–23
13%
24–27
19%
28–31
20%
32–35
32%
36–39
3%
40명 이상
17%
32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.2%
$31,654 거래량
$31,654 거래량
2026.08.31
20명 미만
$16,991 거래량
3%
20–23
$5,250 거래량
13%
24–27
$4,156 거래량
19%
28–31
$1,174 거래량
20%
32–35
$3,574 거래량
32%
36–39
$508 거래량
3%
40명 이상
$0 거래량
17%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements from roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents, including several senior members citing age and the demands of continued service, have established a baseline for departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders appear to anticipate additional retirements or moves to other offices in the months before filing deadlines, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where totals rose substantially after early spring. Factors such as post-redistricting district changes, partisan polarization, and individual career considerations could accelerate further exits, while sustained party leadership pressure or favorable polling in competitive seats might encourage some members to remain. This dynamic supports current positioning around the 32–35 range as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands reflecting uncertainty over the final count.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
거래량
$31,654종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements from roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents, including several senior members citing age and the demands of continued service, have established a baseline for departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders appear to anticipate additional retirements or moves to other offices in the months before filing deadlines, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where totals rose substantially after early spring. Factors such as post-redistricting district changes, partisan polarization, and individual career considerations could accelerate further exits, while sustained party leadership pressure or favorable polling in competitive seats might encourage some members to remain. This dynamic supports current positioning around the 32–35 range as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands reflecting uncertainty over the final count.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$31,654종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements from roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents, including several senior members citing age and the demands of continued service, have established a baseline for departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. Traders appear to anticipate additional retirements or moves to other offices in the months before filing deadlines, consistent with patterns seen in prior cycles where totals rose substantially after early spring. Factors such as post-redistricting district changes, partisan polarization, and individual career considerations could accelerate further exits, while sustained party leadership pressure or favorable polling in competitive seats might encourage some members to remain. This dynamic supports current positioning around the 32–35 range as the most probable outcome, with narrower bands reflecting uncertainty over the final count.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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