The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C 이하 <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 거래량
$63,971 거래량
2026.05.15
18°C 이하
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C 이하 <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 거래량
$63,971 거래량
2026.05.15
18°C 이하
$2,541 거래량
<1%
19°C
$2,325 거래량
<1%
20°C
$2,408 거래량
<1%
21°C
$2,288 거래량
<1%
22°C
$3,899 거래량
<1%
23°C
$5,193 거래량
<1%
24°C
$12,287 거래량
<1%
25°C
$8,673 거래량
100%
26°C
$12,015 거래량
<1%
27°C
$8,229 거래량
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
거래량
$63,971종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$63,971종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on May 15 because official Hong Kong Observatory data recorded a minimum of exactly that value overnight under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology typically produces nighttime lows of 24–26°C, and no cold-air intrusions or enhanced cloud cover altered the expected diurnal range. Traders therefore treat the observatory’s verified reading as the decisive resolution criterion, leaving only negligible room for alternative outcomes. Minor station-to-station differences remain possible but are unlikely to shift the official minimum outside the 25°C threshold once final quality-controlled values are released.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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