Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 25°C in Hong Kong on May 15 (99.9% implied probability), driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and forecast models confirming warm overnight and early morning conditions. Official readings show soil temperatures at the HKO station reaching 27.2°C just 0.5 meters below surface at 7 a.m., alongside a sea surface temperature of 26°C at North Point by 2 p.m., reflecting persistent above-normal heat amid a lingering trough of low pressure bringing cloudy skies and showers rather than cooling. May climatology supports daily lows around 24–25°C, with this season's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook from HKO reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen nocturnal radiative cooling under clearing skies or a sudden influx of cooler easterly air, both unlikely per current model consensus, with final HKO daily minimum report expected soon after midnight.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.8%
24°C <1%
18°C 이하 <1%
19°C <1%
$56,000 거래량
$56,000 거래량
2026.05.15
18°C 이하
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.8%
24°C <1%
18°C 이하 <1%
19°C <1%
$56,000 거래량
$56,000 거래량
2026.05.15
18°C 이하
$2,456 거래량
<1%
19°C
$2,286 거래량
<1%
20°C
$2,298 거래량
<1%
21°C
$2,278 거래량
<1%
22°C
$3,651 거래량
<1%
23°C
$5,037 거래량
<1%
24°C
$11,990 거래량
<1%
25°C
$8,321 거래량
100%
26°C
$7,535 거래량
<1%
27°C
$7,079 거래량
<1%
28°C or higher
$3,070 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 25°C in Hong Kong on May 15 (99.9% implied probability), driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and forecast models confirming warm overnight and early morning conditions. Official readings show soil temperatures at the HKO station reaching 27.2°C just 0.5 meters below surface at 7 a.m., alongside a sea surface temperature of 26°C at North Point by 2 p.m., reflecting persistent above-normal heat amid a lingering trough of low pressure bringing cloudy skies and showers rather than cooling. May climatology supports daily lows around 24–25°C, with this season's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook from HKO reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen nocturnal radiative cooling under clearing skies or a sudden influx of cooler easterly air, both unlikely per current model consensus, with final HKO daily minimum report expected soon after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
거래량
$56,000종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 25°C in Hong Kong on May 15 (99.9% implied probability), driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and forecast models confirming warm overnight and early morning conditions. Official readings show soil temperatures at the HKO station reaching 27.2°C just 0.5 meters below surface at 7 a.m., alongside a sea surface temperature of 26°C at North Point by 2 p.m., reflecting persistent above-normal heat amid a lingering trough of low pressure bringing cloudy skies and showers rather than cooling. May climatology supports daily lows around 24–25°C, with this season's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook from HKO reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen nocturnal radiative cooling under clearing skies or a sudden influx of cooler easterly air, both unlikely per current model consensus, with final HKO daily minimum report expected soon after midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$56,000종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a lowest temperature of 25°C in Hong Kong on May 15 (99.9% implied probability), driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and forecast models confirming warm overnight and early morning conditions. Official readings show soil temperatures at the HKO station reaching 27.2°C just 0.5 meters below surface at 7 a.m., alongside a sea surface temperature of 26°C at North Point by 2 p.m., reflecting persistent above-normal heat amid a lingering trough of low pressure bringing cloudy skies and showers rather than cooling. May climatology supports daily lows around 24–25°C, with this season's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook from HKO reinforcing the positioning. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen nocturnal radiative cooling under clearing skies or a sudden influx of cooler easterly air, both unlikely per current model consensus, with final HKO daily minimum report expected soon after midnight.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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