Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 68°F or higher on May 17, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast discussion highlighting mild ridging aloft yielding coastal highs in the 60s to lower 70s amid clear skies early in the weekend. Persistent onshore flow from a sharpening pressure gradient—tied to an upper trough stalling over the Pacific Northwest—strengthens northwest winds to 45-55 mph gusts, fueling a deep marine layer that tempers warming through stratus clouds and coastal jet dynamics, with Neighborhood Blend Model outputs adjusted downward 3-5°F for variability. Recent observations confirm cooler-than-normal trends, like May 12's 62°F high versus the 68°F climatological average, but Saturday's potential for partial burn-off supports the slight edge for upper-60s peaks; watch Sunday morning's updated GFS/ECMWF runs and NWS advisories for refinements ahead of resolution based on official KSFO measurements.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 17일 샌프란시스코에서 가장 높은 기온을 기록하셨나요?
5월 17일 샌프란시스코에서 가장 높은 기온을 기록하셨나요?
68°F or higher 49%
66-67°F 27%
64-65°F 11%
62-63°F 9%
신규
신규
2026.05.17
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
27%
68°F or higher
49%
68°F or higher 49%
66-67°F 27%
64-65°F 11%
62-63°F 9%
신규
신규
2026.05.17
49°F or below
$361 거래량
<1%
50-51°F
$210 거래량
<1%
52-53°F
$106 거래량
1%
54-55°F
$111 거래량
1%
56-57°F
$798 거래량
1%
58-59°F
$15 거래량
1%
60-61°F
$1 거래량
4%
62-63°F
$119 거래량
9%
64-65°F
$12 거래량
11%
66-67°F
$70 거래량
27%
68°F or higher
$55 거래량
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 68°F or higher on May 17, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast discussion highlighting mild ridging aloft yielding coastal highs in the 60s to lower 70s amid clear skies early in the weekend. Persistent onshore flow from a sharpening pressure gradient—tied to an upper trough stalling over the Pacific Northwest—strengthens northwest winds to 45-55 mph gusts, fueling a deep marine layer that tempers warming through stratus clouds and coastal jet dynamics, with Neighborhood Blend Model outputs adjusted downward 3-5°F for variability. Recent observations confirm cooler-than-normal trends, like May 12's 62°F high versus the 68°F climatological average, but Saturday's potential for partial burn-off supports the slight edge for upper-60s peaks; watch Sunday morning's updated GFS/ECMWF runs and NWS advisories for refinements ahead of resolution based on official KSFO measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
거래량
$1,857종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 68°F or higher on May 17, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast discussion highlighting mild ridging aloft yielding coastal highs in the 60s to lower 70s amid clear skies early in the weekend. Persistent onshore flow from a sharpening pressure gradient—tied to an upper trough stalling over the Pacific Northwest—strengthens northwest winds to 45-55 mph gusts, fueling a deep marine layer that tempers warming through stratus clouds and coastal jet dynamics, with Neighborhood Blend Model outputs adjusted downward 3-5°F for variability. Recent observations confirm cooler-than-normal trends, like May 12's 62°F high versus the 68°F climatological average, but Saturday's potential for partial burn-off supports the slight edge for upper-60s peaks; watch Sunday morning's updated GFS/ECMWF runs and NWS advisories for refinements ahead of resolution based on official KSFO measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$1,857종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 68°F or higher on May 17, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast discussion highlighting mild ridging aloft yielding coastal highs in the 60s to lower 70s amid clear skies early in the weekend. Persistent onshore flow from a sharpening pressure gradient—tied to an upper trough stalling over the Pacific Northwest—strengthens northwest winds to 45-55 mph gusts, fueling a deep marine layer that tempers warming through stratus clouds and coastal jet dynamics, with Neighborhood Blend Model outputs adjusted downward 3-5°F for variability. Recent observations confirm cooler-than-normal trends, like May 12's 62°F high versus the 68°F climatological average, but Saturday's potential for partial burn-off supports the slight edge for upper-60s peaks; watch Sunday morning's updated GFS/ECMWF runs and NWS advisories for refinements ahead of resolution based on official KSFO measurements.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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