Current forecast models from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate London’s May 19 minimum will likely settle between 7 °C and 10 °C, driven by a mix of light winds, variable cloud cover, and modest radiative cooling overnight. Clear-sky periods could allow surface temperatures to drop toward the 9 °C or lower outcomes currently priced at roughly 23 %, while increased low-level cloud would trap heat and favor the market-leading 11 °C and 12 °C contracts. These probabilities reflect traders’ assessment of ensemble spread rather than a single deterministic run, with historical May minima averaging near 8 °C providing context for the tight clustering around 9–12 °C. Updated model guidance issued over the next 48 hours is expected to narrow the range and shift implied odds accordingly.