Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for London's lowest temperature on May 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 6–11°C (24–25.5% each) due to divergent ensemble outputs from UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS on overnight cloud cover and light showers. Updated Met Office guidance as of May 13 shows minimums of 8–9°C at Heathrow and central London sites, driven by a cloudier low-pressure pattern limiting radiative cooling, gusty 20 mph winds mixing the boundary layer, and 30–50% rain chances trapping heat—conditions warmer than recent lows of 5–6°C midweek. Below-5°C outcomes lag at 13.5% amid below-average May norms (historical ~8°C), but clearer spells could dip temps lower. Watch UK Met Office evening update and ECMWF 12z run for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 17일 런던 최저 기온?
5월 17일 런던 최저 기온?
10°C 28%
9°C 21%
11°C 19%
12°C 이상 12%
신규
신규
2026.05.17
2°C 이하
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
5%
7°C
5%
8°C
9%
9°C
25%
10°C
28%
11°C
19%
12°C 이상
12%
10°C 28%
9°C 21%
11°C 19%
12°C 이상 12%
신규
신규
2026.05.17
2°C 이하
$58 거래량
1%
3°C
$226 거래량
1%
4°C
$36 거래량
1%
5°C
$36 거래량
1%
6°C
$108 거래량
5%
7°C
$95 거래량
5%
8°C
$52 거래량
9%
9°C
$31 거래량
25%
10°C
$18 거래량
28%
11°C
$21 거래량
19%
12°C 이상
$84 거래량
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for London's lowest temperature on May 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 6–11°C (24–25.5% each) due to divergent ensemble outputs from UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS on overnight cloud cover and light showers. Updated Met Office guidance as of May 13 shows minimums of 8–9°C at Heathrow and central London sites, driven by a cloudier low-pressure pattern limiting radiative cooling, gusty 20 mph winds mixing the boundary layer, and 30–50% rain chances trapping heat—conditions warmer than recent lows of 5–6°C midweek. Below-5°C outcomes lag at 13.5% amid below-average May norms (historical ~8°C), but clearer spells could dip temps lower. Watch UK Met Office evening update and ECMWF 12z run for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
거래량
$763종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for London's lowest temperature on May 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 6–11°C (24–25.5% each) due to divergent ensemble outputs from UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS on overnight cloud cover and light showers. Updated Met Office guidance as of May 13 shows minimums of 8–9°C at Heathrow and central London sites, driven by a cloudier low-pressure pattern limiting radiative cooling, gusty 20 mph winds mixing the boundary layer, and 30–50% rain chances trapping heat—conditions warmer than recent lows of 5–6°C midweek. Below-5°C outcomes lag at 13.5% amid below-average May norms (historical ~8°C), but clearer spells could dip temps lower. Watch UK Met Office evening update and ECMWF 12z run for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$763종료일
2026.05.17마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in forecast models for London's lowest temperature on May 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 6–11°C (24–25.5% each) due to divergent ensemble outputs from UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS on overnight cloud cover and light showers. Updated Met Office guidance as of May 13 shows minimums of 8–9°C at Heathrow and central London sites, driven by a cloudier low-pressure pattern limiting radiative cooling, gusty 20 mph winds mixing the boundary layer, and 30–50% rain chances trapping heat—conditions warmer than recent lows of 5–6°C midweek. Below-5°C outcomes lag at 13.5% amid below-average May norms (historical ~8°C), but clearer spells could dip temps lower. Watch UK Met Office evening update and ECMWF 12z run for shifts ahead of resolution using official Heathrow observations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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