Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high temperature of 19°C (41.5% implied probability) or 20°C (31.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs projecting means near 19–20°C for May 15 amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting settled conditions over Central Europe. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with this, forecasting a maximum around 20°C with light precipitation possible, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily highs average 19°C. Recent 24-hour model updates show tight clustering around these values, reducing earlier spread from cooler northern influences, though thundery showers could cap peaks per BBC guidance. Final GFS and ECMWF outputs expected overnight may refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
19°C 42%
20°C 32%
18°C 15.2%
21°C 7%
신규
$23,548 거래량
신규
$23,548 거래량
2026.05.15
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
15%
19°C
42%
20°C
32%
21°C
7%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 42%
20°C 32%
18°C 15.2%
21°C 7%
신규
$23,548 거래량
신규
$23,548 거래량
2026.05.15
15°C or below
$1,493 거래량
<1%
16°C
$690 거래량
1%
17°C
$1,160 거래량
1%
18°C
$2,211 거래량
15%
19°C
$3,800 거래량
42%
20°C
$1,579 거래량
32%
21°C
$2,778 거래량
7%
22°C
$2,771 거래량
1%
23°C
$5,577 거래량
1%
24°C
$680 거래량
1%
25°C or higher
$1,027 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high temperature of 19°C (41.5% implied probability) or 20°C (31.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs projecting means near 19–20°C for May 15 amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting settled conditions over Central Europe. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with this, forecasting a maximum around 20°C with light precipitation possible, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily highs average 19°C. Recent 24-hour model updates show tight clustering around these values, reducing earlier spread from cooler northern influences, though thundery showers could cap peaks per BBC guidance. Final GFS and ECMWF outputs expected overnight may refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
거래량
$23,548종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high temperature of 19°C (41.5% implied probability) or 20°C (31.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs projecting means near 19–20°C for May 15 amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting settled conditions over Central Europe. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with this, forecasting a maximum around 20°C with light precipitation possible, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily highs average 19°C. Recent 24-hour model updates show tight clustering around these values, reducing earlier spread from cooler northern influences, though thundery showers could cap peaks per BBC guidance. Final GFS and ECMWF outputs expected overnight may refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$23,548종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Warsaw high temperature of 19°C (41.5% implied probability) or 20°C (31.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble model runs projecting means near 19–20°C for May 15 amid a mild high-pressure ridge promoting settled conditions over Central Europe. Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) aligns with this, forecasting a maximum around 20°C with light precipitation possible, consistent with mid-May climatological norms where daily highs average 19°C. Recent 24-hour model updates show tight clustering around these values, reducing earlier spread from cooler northern influences, though thundery showers could cap peaks per BBC guidance. Final GFS and ECMWF outputs expected overnight may refine probabilities before observations resolve the market.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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