Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (48.5%) and 22°C (43%) for Madrid's highest temperature today, reflecting divergent official forecasts and model outputs amid inherent short-term uncertainty in diurnal heating. AEMET's latest hourly guidance, updated from numerical models, projects a conservative peak of 20°C around 17-18h under clear skies, northerly winds at 20 km/h, and morning lows dipping to 5-9°C—cooler than the mid-May climatological average of ~22°C—due to cool air advection. However, ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS suggest potential for 22-23°C if winds ease and solar insolation drives stronger boundary-layer warming at Madrid-Barajas station, the likely resolution site. Afternoon observations and 12z model runs will sharpen the outlook.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Madrid on May 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 14?
23°C 46%
22°C 43%
21°C 6%
24°C 3.5%
$46,012 거래량
$46,012 거래량
2026.05.14
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
6%
22°C
43%
23°C
46%
24°C
4%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 46%
22°C 43%
21°C 6%
24°C 3.5%
$46,012 거래량
$46,012 거래량
2026.05.14
19°C
$12,114 거래량
<1%
20°C
$5,087 거래량
<1%
21°C
$5,265 거래량
6%
22°C
$3,141 거래량
43%
23°C
$3,598 거래량
46%
24°C
$4,522 거래량
4%
25°C
$2,425 거래량
1%
26°C
$1,285 거래량
<1%
27°C
$1,451 거래량
<1%
28°C or higher
$3,606 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (48.5%) and 22°C (43%) for Madrid's highest temperature today, reflecting divergent official forecasts and model outputs amid inherent short-term uncertainty in diurnal heating. AEMET's latest hourly guidance, updated from numerical models, projects a conservative peak of 20°C around 17-18h under clear skies, northerly winds at 20 km/h, and morning lows dipping to 5-9°C—cooler than the mid-May climatological average of ~22°C—due to cool air advection. However, ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS suggest potential for 22-23°C if winds ease and solar insolation drives stronger boundary-layer warming at Madrid-Barajas station, the likely resolution site. Afternoon observations and 12z model runs will sharpen the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
거래량
$46,012종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (48.5%) and 22°C (43%) for Madrid's highest temperature today, reflecting divergent official forecasts and model outputs amid inherent short-term uncertainty in diurnal heating. AEMET's latest hourly guidance, updated from numerical models, projects a conservative peak of 20°C around 17-18h under clear skies, northerly winds at 20 km/h, and morning lows dipping to 5-9°C—cooler than the mid-May climatological average of ~22°C—due to cool air advection. However, ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS suggest potential for 22-23°C if winds ease and solar insolation drives stronger boundary-layer warming at Madrid-Barajas station, the likely resolution site. Afternoon observations and 12z model runs will sharpen the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$46,012종료일
2026.05.14마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:44 AM ET결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 23°C (48.5%) and 22°C (43%) for Madrid's highest temperature today, reflecting divergent official forecasts and model outputs amid inherent short-term uncertainty in diurnal heating. AEMET's latest hourly guidance, updated from numerical models, projects a conservative peak of 20°C around 17-18h under clear skies, northerly winds at 20 km/h, and morning lows dipping to 5-9°C—cooler than the mid-May climatological average of ~22°C—due to cool air advection. However, ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS suggest potential for 22-23°C if winds ease and solar insolation drives stronger boundary-layer warming at Madrid-Barajas station, the likely resolution site. Afternoon observations and 12z model runs will sharpen the outlook.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문