The record-low Arctic sea ice winter maximum extent in March 2026, tying 2025 at approximately 14.3 million square kilometers—1.36 million below the 1981-2010 average—has set the stage for a potentially historic summer melt, with NSIDC data showing record-low extents persisting into early May, including on May 8. This thin, vulnerable ice pack, combined with above-average air temperatures and an emerging El Niño (ENSO-neutral transitioning rapidly per NOAA, favoring reduced ice via altered atmospheric patterns), drives trader consensus toward a sub-4 million square kilometer minimum (60.5% implied probability), well below recent averages of 4.2-4.6 million. Upcoming NSIDC daily updates and June Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks will refine melt trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트올여름 민북극 해빙 정도?
올여름 민북극 해빙 정도?
400만 제곱킬로미터 미만 64%
4.0~4.2백만 ㎢ 14.5%
420만~440만 제곱킬로미터 9.4%
440만~460만 제곱킬로미터 7.4%
$48,201 거래량
$48,201 거래량
2026.10.01
400만 제곱킬로미터 미만
64%
4.0~4.2백만 ㎢
14%
420만~440만 제곱킬로미터
9%
440만~460만 제곱킬로미터
7%
460만~480만 제곱킬로미터
5%
480-500만 제곱킬로미터
1%
500만+ 제곱킬로미터
1%
400만 제곱킬로미터 미만 64%
4.0~4.2백만 ㎢ 14.5%
420만~440만 제곱킬로미터 9.4%
440만~460만 제곱킬로미터 7.4%
$48,201 거래량
$48,201 거래량
2026.10.01
400만 제곱킬로미터 미만
$25,032 거래량
64%
4.0~4.2백만 ㎢
$3,335 거래량
14%
420만~440만 제곱킬로미터
$1,231 거래량
9%
440만~460만 제곱킬로미터
$1,335 거래량
7%
460만~480만 제곱킬로미터
$2,874 거래량
5%
480-500만 제곱킬로미터
$1,199 거래량
1%
500만+ 제곱킬로미터
$13,195 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic sea ice winter maximum extent in March 2026, tying 2025 at approximately 14.3 million square kilometers—1.36 million below the 1981-2010 average—has set the stage for a potentially historic summer melt, with NSIDC data showing record-low extents persisting into early May, including on May 8. This thin, vulnerable ice pack, combined with above-average air temperatures and an emerging El Niño (ENSO-neutral transitioning rapidly per NOAA, favoring reduced ice via altered atmospheric patterns), drives trader consensus toward a sub-4 million square kilometer minimum (60.5% implied probability), well below recent averages of 4.2-4.6 million. Upcoming NSIDC daily updates and June Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks will refine melt trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
마켓 개설일: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
거래량
$48,201종료일
2026.10.01마켓 개설일
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic sea ice winter maximum extent in March 2026, tying 2025 at approximately 14.3 million square kilometers—1.36 million below the 1981-2010 average—has set the stage for a potentially historic summer melt, with NSIDC data showing record-low extents persisting into early May, including on May 8. This thin, vulnerable ice pack, combined with above-average air temperatures and an emerging El Niño (ENSO-neutral transitioning rapidly per NOAA, favoring reduced ice via altered atmospheric patterns), drives trader consensus toward a sub-4 million square kilometer minimum (60.5% implied probability), well below recent averages of 4.2-4.6 million. Upcoming NSIDC daily updates and June Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks will refine melt trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
거래량
$48,201종료일
2026.10.01마켓 개설일
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The record-low Arctic sea ice winter maximum extent in March 2026, tying 2025 at approximately 14.3 million square kilometers—1.36 million below the 1981-2010 average—has set the stage for a potentially historic summer melt, with NSIDC data showing record-low extents persisting into early May, including on May 8. This thin, vulnerable ice pack, combined with above-average air temperatures and an emerging El Niño (ENSO-neutral transitioning rapidly per NOAA, favoring reduced ice via altered atmospheric patterns), drives trader consensus toward a sub-4 million square kilometer minimum (60.5% implied probability), well below recent averages of 4.2-4.6 million. Upcoming NSIDC daily updates and June Sea Ice Prediction Network outlooks will refine melt trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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