PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Manila on May 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 15?
35°C 38%
34°C 31%
36°C 23%
37°C 3.9%
신규
신규
2026.05.15
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
4%
34°C
31%
35°C
38%
36°C
23%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 38%
34°C 31%
36°C 23%
37°C 3.9%
신규
신규
2026.05.15
29°C or below
$357 거래량
<1%
30°C
$366 거래량
<1%
31°C
$217 거래량
<1%
32°C
$680 거래량
2%
33°C
$705 거래량
4%
34°C
$460 거래량
31%
35°C
$223 거래량
38%
36°C
$433 거래량
23%
37°C
$778 거래량
4%
38°C
$144 거래량
1%
39°C or higher
$190 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
거래량
$4,552종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$4,552종료일
2026.05.15마켓 개설일
May 13, 2026, 12:59 AM ETPAGASA's latest forecast for Manila on May 15 points to a daytime high near 35°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driving trader consensus toward 35°C (34.5% implied probability) and 36°C (32.0%) as leading outcomes. This tight race reflects model uncertainty, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing slight divergence amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward possible El Niño influences that could amplify heat. Localized convection risks suppressing peaks via cloud cover, while urban heat island effects and weak sea breezes favor marginal intensification above climatological May averages of 33–34°C. Historical records exceed 38°C in clear conditions, but current 60–70% rain chances temper extremes; watch PAGASA's afternoon update for refined guidance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문