Current forecast models from European and global ensembles indicate a mild spring night over Paris on May 17, with the overnight minimum most likely settling near 10 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value because a weakening Atlantic trough has allowed warmer maritime air to edge northward, keeping surface temperatures above the cooler climatological baseline for mid-May. Traders have priced the highest probabilities at 10 °C and 11 °C because those outcomes align with the consensus minimum reported by Météo-France stations, while the modest tail risk for 9 °C or lower stems from possible localized radiational cooling if cloud cover clears earlier than expected. Resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at Paris-Montsouris between midnight and midnight local time.