Market-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 18일 파리에서 가장 기온이 낮으신가요?
5월 18일 파리에서 가장 기온이 낮으신가요?
12°C 이상 41%
8°C 21%
7°C 20%
10°C 20%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
2°C 이하
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
3%
6°C
3%
7°C
20%
8°C
21%
9°C
25%
10°C
20%
11°C
9%
12°C 이상
41%
12°C 이상 41%
8°C 21%
7°C 20%
10°C 20%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
2°C 이하
$52 거래량
1%
3°C
$47 거래량
1%
4°C
$0 거래량
3%
5°C
$0 거래량
3%
6°C
$0 거래량
3%
7°C
$0 거래량
20%
8°C
$0 거래량
21%
9°C
$19 거래량
25%
10°C
$0 거래량
20%
11°C
$0 거래량
9%
12°C 이상
$78 거래량
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$196종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$196종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETMarket-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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