Traders assign a 99.2% probability that Pete Hegseth will remain Secretary of Defense beyond May 31, reflecting the recent completion of his Senate confirmation process and the absence of major scandals, policy reversals, or administration directives that would trigger an early exit. Cabinet officials in this role typically serve through standard institutional timelines unless confronted with confirmed allegations, health developments, or shifts in executive priorities. The current market pricing captures broad consensus on short-term continuity. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include sudden resignation, new investigations by the Department of Justice, or an unexpected presidential decision to replace defense leadership ahead of the deadline.