Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$320,166 거래량
2026.10.04
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바
83%
플라비오 보우소나루
72%
페르난두 아다지
8%
미셸 볼소나루
4%
자이르 보우소나루
3%
타르시지우 데 프레이타스
3%
$320,166 거래량
루이스 이나시우 룰라 다 시우바
$134,615 거래량
83%
플라비오 보우소나루
$20,597 거래량
72%
페르난두 아다지
$51,135 거래량
8%
미셸 볼소나루
$26,595 거래량
4%
자이르 보우소나루
$11,175 거래량
3%
타르시지우 데 프레이타스
$76,048 거래량
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
마켓 개설일: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
거래량
$320,166종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
거래량
$320,166종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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