Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads NY-04 Democratic primary trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability, bolstered by her substantial fundraising edge—over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' under $30,000 each—and backing from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (13.5%), Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.4%) cite Gillen's January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, viewed by progressives as enabling deportations, but their fragmented field splits opposition ahead of the June 23 primary. No public polls exist, and low-turnout House primaries historically favor incumbents with established infrastructure.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트로라 길런 82%
Nicholas Sciretta 14%
테일러 달링 4.2%
Gian Jones <1%
$18,621 거래량
$18,621 거래량
2026.06.23
로라 길런
82%
Nicholas Sciretta
14%
테일러 달링
4%
Gian Jones
<1%
로라 길런 82%
Nicholas Sciretta 14%
테일러 달링 4.2%
Gian Jones <1%
$18,621 거래량
$18,621 거래량
2026.06.23
로라 길런
$6,213 거래량
82%
Nicholas Sciretta
$8,666 거래량
14%
테일러 달링
$2,106 거래량
4%
Gian Jones
$1,636 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads NY-04 Democratic primary trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability, bolstered by her substantial fundraising edge—over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' under $30,000 each—and backing from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (13.5%), Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.4%) cite Gillen's January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, viewed by progressives as enabling deportations, but their fragmented field splits opposition ahead of the June 23 primary. No public polls exist, and low-turnout House primaries historically favor incumbents with established infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
마켓 개설일: Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET
거래량
$18,621종료일
2026.06.23마켓 개설일
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads NY-04 Democratic primary trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability, bolstered by her substantial fundraising edge—over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' under $30,000 each—and backing from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (13.5%), Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.4%) cite Gillen's January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, viewed by progressives as enabling deportations, but their fragmented field splits opposition ahead of the June 23 primary. No public polls exist, and low-turnout House primaries historically favor incumbents with established infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
거래량
$18,621종료일
2026.06.23마켓 개설일
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads NY-04 Democratic primary trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability, bolstered by her substantial fundraising edge—over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' under $30,000 each—and backing from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (13.5%), Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.4%) cite Gillen's January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, viewed by progressives as enabling deportations, but their fragmented field splits opposition ahead of the June 23 primary. No public polls exist, and low-turnout House primaries historically favor incumbents with established infrastructure.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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