The anticipated onset of El Niño conditions by mid-2026, with an 82% chance according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, serves as the main catalyst for the market’s 87% implied probability on Yes. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have risen rapidly since early spring, aligning with multi-model forecasts that point to a moderate-to-strong event peaking in late 2026 and sustaining elevated global temperatures through year-end. This builds on 2025’s status as the third-warmest year on record and the first-quarter 2026 temperatures already ranking among the top five, continuing the post-2015 streak of record warmth amid roughly 1.5 °C of anthropogenic warming. Historical analogs show El Niño episodes reliably produce individual monthly peaks that exceed prior maxima, while current ocean-heat content and model consensus leave limited room for a cooler second half.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$137,007 거래량
$137,007 거래량
2027.01.10
예
$137,007 거래량
$137,007 거래량
2027.01.10
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The anticipated onset of El Niño conditions by mid-2026, with an 82% chance according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, serves as the main catalyst for the market’s 87% implied probability on Yes. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have risen rapidly since early spring, aligning with multi-model forecasts that point to a moderate-to-strong event peaking in late 2026 and sustaining elevated global temperatures through year-end. This builds on 2025’s status as the third-warmest year on record and the first-quarter 2026 temperatures already ranking among the top five, continuing the post-2015 streak of record warmth amid roughly 1.5 °C of anthropogenic warming. Historical analogs show El Niño episodes reliably produce individual monthly peaks that exceed prior maxima, while current ocean-heat content and model consensus leave limited room for a cooler second half.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
마켓 개설일: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
거래량
$137,007종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The anticipated onset of El Niño conditions by mid-2026, with an 82% chance according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, serves as the main catalyst for the market’s 87% implied probability on Yes. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have risen rapidly since early spring, aligning with multi-model forecasts that point to a moderate-to-strong event peaking in late 2026 and sustaining elevated global temperatures through year-end. This builds on 2025’s status as the third-warmest year on record and the first-quarter 2026 temperatures already ranking among the top five, continuing the post-2015 streak of record warmth amid roughly 1.5 °C of anthropogenic warming. Historical analogs show El Niño episodes reliably produce individual monthly peaks that exceed prior maxima, while current ocean-heat content and model consensus leave limited room for a cooler second half.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$137,007종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The anticipated onset of El Niño conditions by mid-2026, with an 82% chance according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, serves as the main catalyst for the market’s 87% implied probability on Yes. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have risen rapidly since early spring, aligning with multi-model forecasts that point to a moderate-to-strong event peaking in late 2026 and sustaining elevated global temperatures through year-end. This builds on 2025’s status as the third-warmest year on record and the first-quarter 2026 temperatures already ranking among the top five, continuing the post-2015 streak of record warmth amid roughly 1.5 °C of anthropogenic warming. Historical analogs show El Niño episodes reliably produce individual monthly peaks that exceed prior maxima, while current ocean-heat content and model consensus leave limited room for a cooler second half.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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