The overwhelming 92.9% market-implied probability against a DOGE-1 launch before 2027 reflects the CubeSat’s extensive history of postponements since its 2021 announcement, driven by repeated shifts in its rideshare slot on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions and technical integration challenges with Intuitive Machines’ lunar lander. Hardware issues were resolved by late 2025, positioning the 40 kg spacecraft at Cape Canaveral for a potential H2 2026 window, yet the crowded manifest and Elon Musk’s February 2026 comment favoring a 2027 timeline heighten perceived risk. While a September 2026 target exists, any slippage beyond December 31 would resolve the market to “no,” underscoring how secondary-payload dependencies and launch cadence uncertainties continue to shape trader consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Doge-1 달 임무는 2027년 이전에 시작되나요?
Doge-1 달 임무는 2027년 이전에 시작되나요?
예
$800,697 거래량
$800,697 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$800,697 거래량
$800,697 거래량
2026.12.31
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.The overwhelming 92.9% market-implied probability against a DOGE-1 launch before 2027 reflects the CubeSat’s extensive history of postponements since its 2021 announcement, driven by repeated shifts in its rideshare slot on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions and technical integration challenges with Intuitive Machines’ lunar lander. Hardware issues were resolved by late 2025, positioning the 40 kg spacecraft at Cape Canaveral for a potential H2 2026 window, yet the crowded manifest and Elon Musk’s February 2026 comment favoring a 2027 timeline heighten perceived risk. While a September 2026 target exists, any slippage beyond December 31 would resolve the market to “no,” underscoring how secondary-payload dependencies and launch cadence uncertainties continue to shape trader consensus.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
마켓 개설일: Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
거래량
$800,697종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.The overwhelming 92.9% market-implied probability against a DOGE-1 launch before 2027 reflects the CubeSat’s extensive history of postponements since its 2021 announcement, driven by repeated shifts in its rideshare slot on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions and technical integration challenges with Intuitive Machines’ lunar lander. Hardware issues were resolved by late 2025, positioning the 40 kg spacecraft at Cape Canaveral for a potential H2 2026 window, yet the crowded manifest and Elon Musk’s February 2026 comment favoring a 2027 timeline heighten perceived risk. While a September 2026 target exists, any slippage beyond December 31 would resolve the market to “no,” underscoring how secondary-payload dependencies and launch cadence uncertainties continue to shape trader consensus.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
거래량
$800,697종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming 92.9% market-implied probability against a DOGE-1 launch before 2027 reflects the CubeSat’s extensive history of postponements since its 2021 announcement, driven by repeated shifts in its rideshare slot on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions and technical integration challenges with Intuitive Machines’ lunar lander. Hardware issues were resolved by late 2025, positioning the 40 kg spacecraft at Cape Canaveral for a potential H2 2026 window, yet the crowded manifest and Elon Musk’s February 2026 comment favoring a 2027 timeline heighten perceived risk. While a September 2026 target exists, any slippage beyond December 31 would resolve the market to “no,” underscoring how secondary-payload dependencies and launch cadence uncertainties continue to shape trader consensus.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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