The high market-implied probability favoring no launch before 2027 stems primarily from DOGE-1’s repeated schedule slips since its 2021 announcement as a 40-kilogram CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions. Official manifests list only a tentative September 13, 2026, window tied to Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 lunar lander, yet SpaceX’s crowded cadence of Starlink, crewed, and primary payloads continues to push secondary missions later. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 timeline reinforced trader skepticism. While hardware integration for the trans-lunar injection trajectory is reportedly resolved and the spacecraft is at Cape Canaveral, narrow lunar alignment windows and integration risks persist. A confirmed manifest addition or expedited readiness review could still alter the outlook ahead of the next SpaceX update.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Doge-1 달 임무는 2027년 이전에 시작되나요?
Doge-1 달 임무는 2027년 이전에 시작되나요?
예
$800,697 거래량
$800,697 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$800,697 거래량
$800,697 거래량
2026.12.31
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.The high market-implied probability favoring no launch before 2027 stems primarily from DOGE-1’s repeated schedule slips since its 2021 announcement as a 40-kilogram CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions. Official manifests list only a tentative September 13, 2026, window tied to Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 lunar lander, yet SpaceX’s crowded cadence of Starlink, crewed, and primary payloads continues to push secondary missions later. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 timeline reinforced trader skepticism. While hardware integration for the trans-lunar injection trajectory is reportedly resolved and the spacecraft is at Cape Canaveral, narrow lunar alignment windows and integration risks persist. A confirmed manifest addition or expedited readiness review could still alter the outlook ahead of the next SpaceX update.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
마켓 개설일: Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
거래량
$800,697종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.The high market-implied probability favoring no launch before 2027 stems primarily from DOGE-1’s repeated schedule slips since its 2021 announcement as a 40-kilogram CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions. Official manifests list only a tentative September 13, 2026, window tied to Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 lunar lander, yet SpaceX’s crowded cadence of Starlink, crewed, and primary payloads continues to push secondary missions later. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 timeline reinforced trader skepticism. While hardware integration for the trans-lunar injection trajectory is reportedly resolved and the spacecraft is at Cape Canaveral, narrow lunar alignment windows and integration risks persist. A confirmed manifest addition or expedited readiness review could still alter the outlook ahead of the next SpaceX update.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
거래량
$800,697종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high market-implied probability favoring no launch before 2027 stems primarily from DOGE-1’s repeated schedule slips since its 2021 announcement as a 40-kilogram CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX Falcon 9 missions. Official manifests list only a tentative September 13, 2026, window tied to Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 lunar lander, yet SpaceX’s crowded cadence of Starlink, crewed, and primary payloads continues to push secondary missions later. Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 timeline reinforced trader skepticism. While hardware integration for the trans-lunar injection trajectory is reportedly resolved and the spacecraft is at Cape Canaveral, narrow lunar alignment windows and integration risks persist. A confirmed manifest addition or expedited readiness review could still alter the outlook ahead of the next SpaceX update.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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