Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rate and 2.5% core, alongside a soft July jobs report with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, anchor trader views that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady near 3.5-3.75% at its January 2027 meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, driven by energy shocks and supply factors, supports the 61.5% implied probability of no change and the 20% chance of a 25 basis point hike, while recent labor market cooling limits odds of easing to 14.5%. Markets price a gradual tightening path through late 2026, consistent with dissents favoring hikes and forward guidance emphasizing price stability amid resilient growth. The September FOMC meeting and August CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in January?
No change 62%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
$34,852 Wol.
$34,852 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
$34,852 Wol.
$34,852 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$3,886 Wol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$7,430 Wol.
15%
No change
$14,028 Wol.
62%
25 bps increase
$8,045 Wol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$1,463 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rate and 2.5% core, alongside a soft July jobs report with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, anchor trader views that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady near 3.5-3.75% at its January 2027 meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, driven by energy shocks and supply factors, supports the 61.5% implied probability of no change and the 20% chance of a 25 basis point hike, while recent labor market cooling limits odds of easing to 14.5%. Markets price a gradual tightening path through late 2026, consistent with dissents favoring hikes and forward guidance emphasizing price stability amid resilient growth. The September FOMC meeting and August CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$34,852Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rate and 2.5% core, alongside a soft July jobs report with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, anchor trader views that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady near 3.5-3.75% at its January 2027 meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, driven by energy shocks and supply factors, supports the 61.5% implied probability of no change and the 20% chance of a 25 basis point hike, while recent labor market cooling limits odds of easing to 14.5%. Markets price a gradual tightening path through late 2026, consistent with dissents favoring hikes and forward guidance emphasizing price stability amid resilient growth. The September FOMC meeting and August CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$34,852Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing a 3.4% year-over-year rate and 2.5% core, alongside a soft July jobs report with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, anchor trader views that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady near 3.5-3.75% at its January 2027 meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, driven by energy shocks and supply factors, supports the 61.5% implied probability of no change and the 20% chance of a 25 basis point hike, while recent labor market cooling limits odds of easing to 14.5%. Markets price a gradual tightening path through late 2026, consistent with dissents favoring hikes and forward guidance emphasizing price stability amid resilient growth. The September FOMC meeting and August CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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