Elevated inflation readings and the Federal Reserve's patient stance have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, reflected in the 75.5% market-implied probability. The June and July decisions both maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75%, with the latter showing a 9-3 split that underscored hawkish concerns over sticky price pressures, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year. Recent softer labor data and moderating core inflation have tempered September hike odds, keeping a hold the dominant path while leaving room for the 23% "Other" outcome if energy volatility or revised projections shift the balance. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term easing, consistent with the negligible 0.4% probability assigned to a September cut.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$739,617 Wol.
$739,617 Wol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
23%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 23%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$739,617 Wol.
$739,617 Wol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,325 Wol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$73,400 Wol.
<1%
Other
$320,016 Wol.
23%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and the Federal Reserve's patient stance have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, reflected in the 75.5% market-implied probability. The June and July decisions both maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75%, with the latter showing a 9-3 split that underscored hawkish concerns over sticky price pressures, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year. Recent softer labor data and moderating core inflation have tempered September hike odds, keeping a hold the dominant path while leaving room for the 23% "Other" outcome if energy volatility or revised projections shift the balance. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term easing, consistent with the negligible 0.4% probability assigned to a September cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$739,617Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and the Federal Reserve's patient stance have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, reflected in the 75.5% market-implied probability. The June and July decisions both maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75%, with the latter showing a 9-3 split that underscored hawkish concerns over sticky price pressures, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year. Recent softer labor data and moderating core inflation have tempered September hike odds, keeping a hold the dominant path while leaving room for the 23% "Other" outcome if energy volatility or revised projections shift the balance. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term easing, consistent with the negligible 0.4% probability assigned to a September cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$739,617Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and the Federal Reserve's patient stance have anchored trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, reflected in the 75.5% market-implied probability. The June and July decisions both maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75%, with the latter showing a 9-3 split that underscored hawkish concerns over sticky price pressures, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year. Recent softer labor data and moderating core inflation have tempered September hike odds, keeping a hold the dominant path while leaving room for the 23% "Other" outcome if energy volatility or revised projections shift the balance. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term easing, consistent with the negligible 0.4% probability assigned to a September cut.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania