Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington on August 6 projects a daily maximum of 10–11°C under southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, aligning with the 53% and 37% market-implied odds on those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions where the August climatological mean high near 12°C is tempered by limited insolation, stable high pressure, and minimal warm advection. Model consensus and current observations of 7–9°C on August 5 support the tight 10–11°C range, though a northerly shift or delayed frontal passage could realistically allow 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical cold-outbreak analogs when assigning skin-in-the-game probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
11°C 55%
10°C 35%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
NOWE
$26,899 Wol.
NOWE
$26,899 Wol.
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
4%
10°C
35%
11°C
55%
12°C
9%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 55%
10°C 35%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
NOWE
$26,899 Wol.
NOWE
$26,899 Wol.
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
$373 Wol.
<1%
6°C
$353 Wol.
<1%
7°C
$581 Wol.
<1%
8°C
$2,117 Wol.
<1%
9°C
$3,650 Wol.
4%
10°C
$4,293 Wol.
35%
11°C
$5,424 Wol.
55%
12°C
$4,754 Wol.
9%
13°C
$3,430 Wol.
1%
14°C
$577 Wol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$1,347 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington on August 6 projects a daily maximum of 10–11°C under southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, aligning with the 53% and 37% market-implied odds on those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions where the August climatological mean high near 12°C is tempered by limited insolation, stable high pressure, and minimal warm advection. Model consensus and current observations of 7–9°C on August 5 support the tight 10–11°C range, though a northerly shift or delayed frontal passage could realistically allow 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical cold-outbreak analogs when assigning skin-in-the-game probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$26,899Data zakończenia
Aug 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington on August 6 projects a daily maximum of 10–11°C under southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, aligning with the 53% and 37% market-implied odds on those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions where the August climatological mean high near 12°C is tempered by limited insolation, stable high pressure, and minimal warm advection. Model consensus and current observations of 7–9°C on August 5 support the tight 10–11°C range, though a northerly shift or delayed frontal passage could realistically allow 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical cold-outbreak analogs when assigning skin-in-the-game probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$26,899Data zakończenia
Aug 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and NIWA guidance for Wellington on August 6 projects a daily maximum of 10–11°C under southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, aligning with the 53% and 37% market-implied odds on those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions where the August climatological mean high near 12°C is tempered by limited insolation, stable high pressure, and minimal warm advection. Model consensus and current observations of 7–9°C on August 5 support the tight 10–11°C range, though a northerly shift or delayed frontal passage could realistically allow 12°C. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical cold-outbreak analogs when assigning skin-in-the-game probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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