Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 14°C high temperature in Wellington at 55% implied probability for May 14, driven by MetService's latest evening update (issued 5:13pm May 13) forecasting exactly that daytime maximum under mainly fine conditions with southerlies easing after recent showers. Persistent cool southerly airflow from a high-pressure ridge—following yesterday's 14°C airport reading—suppresses temperatures near the May climatological average of 14°C at Wellington International Airport station, the market's resolution source. A 32.5% chance on 15°C reflects occasional model warm biases and potential afternoon clearing, while NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook reinforces low-teens clustering; new hourly observations and tomorrow's forecast refresh could refine odds further.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 14?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 14?
14°C 54%
15°C 34%
16°C 6.7%
17°C 1.9%
NOWE
$23,769 Wol.
NOWE
$23,769 Wol.
May 14, 2026
13°C
<1%
14°C
54%
15°C
34%
16°C
7%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
14°C 54%
15°C 34%
16°C 6.7%
17°C 1.9%
NOWE
$23,769 Wol.
NOWE
$23,769 Wol.
May 14, 2026
13°C
$6,327 Wol.
<1%
14°C
$2,283 Wol.
54%
15°C
$1,729 Wol.
34%
16°C
$2,788 Wol.
7%
17°C
$1,830 Wol.
2%
18°C or higher
$3,576 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 14°C high temperature in Wellington at 55% implied probability for May 14, driven by MetService's latest evening update (issued 5:13pm May 13) forecasting exactly that daytime maximum under mainly fine conditions with southerlies easing after recent showers. Persistent cool southerly airflow from a high-pressure ridge—following yesterday's 14°C airport reading—suppresses temperatures near the May climatological average of 14°C at Wellington International Airport station, the market's resolution source. A 32.5% chance on 15°C reflects occasional model warm biases and potential afternoon clearing, while NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook reinforces low-teens clustering; new hourly observations and tomorrow's forecast refresh could refine odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Wolumen
$23,769Data zakończenia
May 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 14°C high temperature in Wellington at 55% implied probability for May 14, driven by MetService's latest evening update (issued 5:13pm May 13) forecasting exactly that daytime maximum under mainly fine conditions with southerlies easing after recent showers. Persistent cool southerly airflow from a high-pressure ridge—following yesterday's 14°C airport reading—suppresses temperatures near the May climatological average of 14°C at Wellington International Airport station, the market's resolution source. A 32.5% chance on 15°C reflects occasional model warm biases and potential afternoon clearing, while NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook reinforces low-teens clustering; new hourly observations and tomorrow's forecast refresh could refine odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$23,769Data zakończenia
May 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 14°C high temperature in Wellington at 55% implied probability for May 14, driven by MetService's latest evening update (issued 5:13pm May 13) forecasting exactly that daytime maximum under mainly fine conditions with southerlies easing after recent showers. Persistent cool southerly airflow from a high-pressure ridge—following yesterday's 14°C airport reading—suppresses temperatures near the May climatological average of 14°C at Wellington International Airport station, the market's resolution source. A 32.5% chance on 15°C reflects occasional model warm biases and potential afternoon clearing, while NIWA's near-average seasonal outlook reinforces low-teens clustering; new hourly observations and tomorrow's forecast refresh could refine odds further.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania