Escalating military tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel triggered a major airspace closure beginning February 28, 2026, after strikes on Iranian targets prompted Tehran to restrict commercial overflights and operations for safety amid missile and drone activity. This led to widespread flight diversions across the Middle East and prompted neighboring countries including Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE to implement similar restrictions. Phased partial reopenings began in late April 2026, with eastern sectors of the Tehran FIR allowing limited overflights above certain altitudes under strict procedures while western areas remained closed, alongside resumption of some domestic flights. Trader sentiment on future closure dates reflects ongoing uncertainty tied to diplomatic negotiations, potential further escalations, and the pace of aviation recovery, as airlines continue avoiding the region despite incremental easing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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