Ongoing regional tensions stemming from February 2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets prompted Iran to close its national airspace on February 28, with neighboring countries following suit and disrupting commercial routes across the Middle East. A phased partial reopening began in late April, allowing limited domestic flights and some eastern transit corridors, yet airlines continue avoiding the area amid unresolved diplomatic frictions and military alerts. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether sustained de-escalation or new escalatory incidents will trigger a renewed full closure by late May, with resolution hinging on verifiable military movements, official NOTAM issuances, and progress in U.S.-Iran talks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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