Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes, particularly Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations in early 2026, have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the assessed timeline for weapon acquisition to nine-to-twelve months according to U.S. intelligence. IAEA reports confirm significant destruction of above-ground facilities and restricted access to underground complexes, with no verified progress on reconstitution or further enrichment to weapons-grade levels. Iranian officials have not announced any intent to conduct a test, and diplomatic channels remain focused on sanctions and monitoring rather than breakout. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027, as the current trajectory requires additional time for recovery, testing infrastructure, and political decisions amid ongoing regional tensions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$192,418 Wol.
$192,418 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$192,418 Wol.
$192,418 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes, particularly Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations in early 2026, have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the assessed timeline for weapon acquisition to nine-to-twelve months according to U.S. intelligence. IAEA reports confirm significant destruction of above-ground facilities and restricted access to underground complexes, with no verified progress on reconstitution or further enrichment to weapons-grade levels. Iranian officials have not announced any intent to conduct a test, and diplomatic channels remain focused on sanctions and monitoring rather than breakout. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027, as the current trajectory requires additional time for recovery, testing infrastructure, and political decisions amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$192,418Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes, particularly Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations in early 2026, have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the assessed timeline for weapon acquisition to nine-to-twelve months according to U.S. intelligence. IAEA reports confirm significant destruction of above-ground facilities and restricted access to underground complexes, with no verified progress on reconstitution or further enrichment to weapons-grade levels. Iranian officials have not announced any intent to conduct a test, and diplomatic channels remain focused on sanctions and monitoring rather than breakout. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027, as the current trajectory requires additional time for recovery, testing infrastructure, and political decisions amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$192,418Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes, particularly Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations in early 2026, have damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the assessed timeline for weapon acquisition to nine-to-twelve months according to U.S. intelligence. IAEA reports confirm significant destruction of above-ground facilities and restricted access to underground complexes, with no verified progress on reconstitution or further enrichment to weapons-grade levels. Iranian officials have not announced any intent to conduct a test, and diplomatic channels remain focused on sanctions and monitoring rather than breakout. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027, as the current trajectory requires additional time for recovery, testing infrastructure, and political decisions amid ongoing regional tensions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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