The race for the Montarville seat in Quebec's October 5, 2026, general election remains closely contested between incumbent CAQ MNA and National Assembly president Nathalie Roy and PQ challenger Jean-François Cloutier, with recent projections showing both parties in the low-to-mid 30s percent range amid a broader provincial shift toward the PQ. Roy's local incumbency and profile provide a base in the Boucherville-Saint-Bruno area, while Cloutier's candidacy aligns with PQ momentum on sovereignty and cost-of-living issues that have narrowed CAQ leads in similar Montérégie ridings. Lower-polling Liberal Mathieu Lavoie and QS candidate Ginette Langlois split opposition votes without threatening the top two. Late-campaign provincial polling trends, turnout among francophone voters, and any riding-specific debates on housing or economic policy could widen the margin before nomination deadlines close on September 17.