Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point edge on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with the historical midterm penalty against the president's party and positioning Democrats for net House gains. Forecasts from Cook Political Report, The Economist, and consensus models project Republican seats in the low-to-mid 200s, reflecting roughly 40-50 competitive districts and 19 toss-ups where shifts in turnout or candidate strength could decide outcomes. Mid-decade redistricting offers Republicans limited defensive gains, while Democratic advantages in battleground recruitment and suburban performance keep the map tight. Trader pricing across the seat ranges captures this uncertainty, with separation likely hinging on September-October polling trends, primary resolutions, and any late shifts in presidential approval or economic indicators.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 24%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.8%
$286,335 Wol.
$286,335 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
24%
190-194
15%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
8%
225-229
8%
230+
3%
Below 190 24%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.8%
$286,335 Wol.
$286,335 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$32,984 Wol.
24%
190-194
$13,637 Wol.
15%
195-199
$32,609 Wol.
12%
200-204
$24,750 Wol.
12%
205-209
$40,227 Wol.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Wol.
9%
215-219
$11,450 Wol.
7%
220-224
$59,267 Wol.
8%
225-229
$24,767 Wol.
8%
230+
$30,975 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point edge on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with the historical midterm penalty against the president's party and positioning Democrats for net House gains. Forecasts from Cook Political Report, The Economist, and consensus models project Republican seats in the low-to-mid 200s, reflecting roughly 40-50 competitive districts and 19 toss-ups where shifts in turnout or candidate strength could decide outcomes. Mid-decade redistricting offers Republicans limited defensive gains, while Democratic advantages in battleground recruitment and suburban performance keep the map tight. Trader pricing across the seat ranges captures this uncertainty, with separation likely hinging on September-October polling trends, primary resolutions, and any late shifts in presidential approval or economic indicators.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$286,335Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point edge on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with the historical midterm penalty against the president's party and positioning Democrats for net House gains. Forecasts from Cook Political Report, The Economist, and consensus models project Republican seats in the low-to-mid 200s, reflecting roughly 40-50 competitive districts and 19 toss-ups where shifts in turnout or candidate strength could decide outcomes. Mid-decade redistricting offers Republicans limited defensive gains, while Democratic advantages in battleground recruitment and suburban performance keep the map tight. Trader pricing across the seat ranges captures this uncertainty, with separation likely hinging on September-October polling trends, primary resolutions, and any late shifts in presidential approval or economic indicators.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$286,335Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point edge on the generic congressional ballot, consistent with the historical midterm penalty against the president's party and positioning Democrats for net House gains. Forecasts from Cook Political Report, The Economist, and consensus models project Republican seats in the low-to-mid 200s, reflecting roughly 40-50 competitive districts and 19 toss-ups where shifts in turnout or candidate strength could decide outcomes. Mid-decade redistricting offers Republicans limited defensive gains, while Democratic advantages in battleground recruitment and suburban performance keep the map tight. Trader pricing across the seat ranges captures this uncertainty, with separation likely hinging on September-October polling trends, primary resolutions, and any late shifts in presidential approval or economic indicators.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Czy Partia Republikańska będzie miała 47 lub mniej miejsc w Senacie po wyborach śródokresowych w 2026 roku?
26%
Tak
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
22%
Czy Partia Demokratyczna będzie kontrolowała Izbę po wyborach śródokresowych w 2026 roku?
88%
Tak
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