Flávio Bolsonaro's dominant 84.5% implied probability for first place in Espírito Santo reflects the Bolsonaro family's enduring appeal in the Southeast battleground state, where right-wing voters have historically backed the movement amid national polarization ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders view the Liberal Party nominee—endorsed by his father Jair Bolsonaro and officially selected by the party in late July—as the clear frontrunner locally, outpacing fragmented opposition. Lula's low 4.2% odds align with weaker PT performance in the region despite his national incumbency edge, while minor candidates like Veterinário Wilson Grassi (10.8%) and others register limited traction. Recent factors include Flávio's post-nomination reconciliation with Michelle Bolsonaro and sustained polling momentum in conservative areas, though any late shifts in turnout or scandals could still influence the state outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlavio Bolsonaro 85%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 10.1%
Lula 4.3%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
85%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
10%
Lula
4%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 85%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 10.1%
Lula 4.3%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,304 Wol.
85%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$328 Wol.
10%
Lula
$239 Wol.
4%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$247 Wol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$211 Wol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$218 Wol.
1%
Renan Santos
$383 Wol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$385 Wol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$478 Wol.
<1%
Samara
$467 Wol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$381 Wol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$612 Wol.
<1%
Zema
$689 Wol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's dominant 84.5% implied probability for first place in Espírito Santo reflects the Bolsonaro family's enduring appeal in the Southeast battleground state, where right-wing voters have historically backed the movement amid national polarization ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders view the Liberal Party nominee—endorsed by his father Jair Bolsonaro and officially selected by the party in late July—as the clear frontrunner locally, outpacing fragmented opposition. Lula's low 4.2% odds align with weaker PT performance in the region despite his national incumbency edge, while minor candidates like Veterinário Wilson Grassi (10.8%) and others register limited traction. Recent factors include Flávio's post-nomination reconciliation with Michelle Bolsonaro and sustained polling momentum in conservative areas, though any late shifts in turnout or scandals could still influence the state outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Wolumen
$8,942Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's dominant 84.5% implied probability for first place in Espírito Santo reflects the Bolsonaro family's enduring appeal in the Southeast battleground state, where right-wing voters have historically backed the movement amid national polarization ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders view the Liberal Party nominee—endorsed by his father Jair Bolsonaro and officially selected by the party in late July—as the clear frontrunner locally, outpacing fragmented opposition. Lula's low 4.2% odds align with weaker PT performance in the region despite his national incumbency edge, while minor candidates like Veterinário Wilson Grassi (10.8%) and others register limited traction. Recent factors include Flávio's post-nomination reconciliation with Michelle Bolsonaro and sustained polling momentum in conservative areas, though any late shifts in turnout or scandals could still influence the state outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$8,942Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro's dominant 84.5% implied probability for first place in Espírito Santo reflects the Bolsonaro family's enduring appeal in the Southeast battleground state, where right-wing voters have historically backed the movement amid national polarization ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders view the Liberal Party nominee—endorsed by his father Jair Bolsonaro and officially selected by the party in late July—as the clear frontrunner locally, outpacing fragmented opposition. Lula's low 4.2% odds align with weaker PT performance in the region despite his national incumbency edge, while minor candidates like Veterinário Wilson Grassi (10.8%) and others register limited traction. Recent factors include Flávio's post-nomination reconciliation with Michelle Bolsonaro and sustained polling momentum in conservative areas, though any late shifts in turnout or scandals could still influence the state outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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