Lula’s campaign has signaled a selective approach to 2026 presidential debates ahead of the October 4 first round, weighing his narrow polling lead against Flávio Bolsonaro and other candidates. Allies have indicated the incumbent is likely to skip the initial Band-organized debate on August 23, citing concerns over format, inclusion of lower-polling contenders, and preparation demands amid a packed schedule. Similar absences are expected from Flávio’s side unless Lula attends. Multiple later televised events remain scheduled through late September, however, and PT strategists describe participation as a case-by-case decision rather than a blanket refusal. Traders price the 60% probability for at least one pre-first-round appearance around this balance of early caution and remaining opportunities for a high-visibility forum.