Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting sustained voter support in the Northeast's largest electoral college. Recent Quaest surveys from July and August show the incumbent capturing 50-52% of first-round intentions, far ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 17-18% and other listed contenders below 4%. Government approval ratings near 60% and lower rejection levels compared with rivals underpin this positioning, consistent with the state's historical alignment with PT candidates. A forthcoming Quaest poll scheduled for late September could provide updated signals ahead of the October 4 vote. Realistic shifts would require major events such as sharp economic deterioration, significant candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen legal developments altering the field.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLula 98.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.5%
Hertz Dias <1%
Zema <1%
$10,814 Wol.
$10,814 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 98.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.5%
Hertz Dias <1%
Zema <1%
$10,814 Wol.
$10,814 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,409 Wol.
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$662 Wol.
2%
Hertz Dias
$467 Wol.
<1%
Zema
$243 Wol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$470 Wol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$475 Wol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$471 Wol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$395 Wol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$439 Wol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$471 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$383 Wol.
<1%
Samara
$463 Wol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$463 Wol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting sustained voter support in the Northeast's largest electoral college. Recent Quaest surveys from July and August show the incumbent capturing 50-52% of first-round intentions, far ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 17-18% and other listed contenders below 4%. Government approval ratings near 60% and lower rejection levels compared with rivals underpin this positioning, consistent with the state's historical alignment with PT candidates. A forthcoming Quaest poll scheduled for late September could provide updated signals ahead of the October 4 vote. Realistic shifts would require major events such as sharp economic deterioration, significant candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen legal developments altering the field.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Wolumen
$10,814Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting sustained voter support in the Northeast's largest electoral college. Recent Quaest surveys from July and August show the incumbent capturing 50-52% of first-round intentions, far ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 17-18% and other listed contenders below 4%. Government approval ratings near 60% and lower rejection levels compared with rivals underpin this positioning, consistent with the state's historical alignment with PT candidates. A forthcoming Quaest poll scheduled for late September could provide updated signals ahead of the October 4 vote. Realistic shifts would require major events such as sharp economic deterioration, significant candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen legal developments altering the field.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$10,814Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting sustained voter support in the Northeast's largest electoral college. Recent Quaest surveys from July and August show the incumbent capturing 50-52% of first-round intentions, far ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 17-18% and other listed contenders below 4%. Government approval ratings near 60% and lower rejection levels compared with rivals underpin this positioning, consistent with the state's historical alignment with PT candidates. A forthcoming Quaest poll scheduled for late September could provide updated signals ahead of the October 4 vote. Realistic shifts would require major events such as sharp economic deterioration, significant candidate withdrawals, or unforeseen legal developments altering the field.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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