Lula maintains a clear lead in recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driving the 85.5% market price as traders price in his strong position to secure the plurality amid a fragmented field. A Quaest survey released September 2 showed him at 37%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 30% and rising third-place candidate Augusto Cury at 10%, following the start of official campaign advertising. Flávio’s 14% price reflects his role as the primary right-wing challenger, though right-wing support remains split among lower-polling names such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Second-round simulations remain close, and the first-round outcome hinges on turnout, undecided voters near 11%, and whether any single opponent consolidates enough to challenge Lula’s edge before election day.