Recent September polling places President Lula da Silva's first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s, with the main challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in the low to mid 30s and remaining candidates fragmenting the rest. Multiple surveys, including Indexa, CNT/MDA, Quaest, and Datafolha, show Lula holding a lead but not enough to reach a majority on October 4, consistent with the market's clustered probabilities around 35-44%. The narrow gap in simulated runoffs, ongoing Supreme Court institutional tensions, and undecided voters sustain uncertainty over final turnout and vote distribution. Late campaign shifts or higher opposition consolidation could push Lula's share outside this range before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano<35% 16%
38-41% 15%
41-44% 15%
44%+ 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
16%
35-38%
14%
38-41%
15%
41-44%
15%
44%+
15%
<35% 16%
38-41% 15%
41-44% 15%
44%+ 15%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
$0 Wol.
16%
35-38%
$0 Wol.
14%
38-41%
$0 Wol.
15%
41-44%
$0 Wol.
15%
44%+
$0 Wol.
15%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September polling places President Lula da Silva's first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s, with the main challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in the low to mid 30s and remaining candidates fragmenting the rest. Multiple surveys, including Indexa, CNT/MDA, Quaest, and Datafolha, show Lula holding a lead but not enough to reach a majority on October 4, consistent with the market's clustered probabilities around 35-44%. The narrow gap in simulated runoffs, ongoing Supreme Court institutional tensions, and undecided voters sustain uncertainty over final turnout and vote distribution. Late campaign shifts or higher opposition consolidation could push Lula's share outside this range before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September polling places President Lula da Silva's first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s, with the main challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in the low to mid 30s and remaining candidates fragmenting the rest. Multiple surveys, including Indexa, CNT/MDA, Quaest, and Datafolha, show Lula holding a lead but not enough to reach a majority on October 4, consistent with the market's clustered probabilities around 35-44%. The narrow gap in simulated runoffs, ongoing Supreme Court institutional tensions, and undecided voters sustain uncertainty over final turnout and vote distribution. Late campaign shifts or higher opposition consolidation could push Lula's share outside this range before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent September polling places President Lula da Silva's first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s, with the main challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in the low to mid 30s and remaining candidates fragmenting the rest. Multiple surveys, including Indexa, CNT/MDA, Quaest, and Datafolha, show Lula holding a lead but not enough to reach a majority on October 4, consistent with the market's clustered probabilities around 35-44%. The narrow gap in simulated runoffs, ongoing Supreme Court institutional tensions, and undecided voters sustain uncertainty over final turnout and vote distribution. Late campaign shifts or higher opposition consolidation could push Lula's share outside this range before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
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