Lula maintains a commanding lead in Alagoas first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 44-50% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-31% and all other tested candidates below 5%. This positioning reflects sustained government approval ratings near 52-58% in the state alongside a fragmented opposition field that includes lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. National aggregates similarly place Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by several points. Trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% implied probability for Lula finishing first accounts for these consistent state-level results, though shifts could still arise from late campaign developments, turnout variations in the Northeast, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLula 97.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.3%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$14,225 Wol.
$14,225 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 97.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.3%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$14,225 Wol.
$14,225 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,306 Wol.
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$608 Wol.
2%
Zema
$527 Wol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$592 Wol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$592 Wol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$598 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$598 Wol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$602 Wol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$629 Wol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$592 Wol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$602 Wol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$486 Wol.
<1%
Samara
$491 Wol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Alagoas first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 44-50% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-31% and all other tested candidates below 5%. This positioning reflects sustained government approval ratings near 52-58% in the state alongside a fragmented opposition field that includes lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. National aggregates similarly place Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by several points. Trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% implied probability for Lula finishing first accounts for these consistent state-level results, though shifts could still arise from late campaign developments, turnout variations in the Northeast, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$14,225Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Alagoas first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 44-50% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-31% and all other tested candidates below 5%. This positioning reflects sustained government approval ratings near 52-58% in the state alongside a fragmented opposition field that includes lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. National aggregates similarly place Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by several points. Trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% implied probability for Lula finishing first accounts for these consistent state-level results, though shifts could still arise from late campaign developments, turnout variations in the Northeast, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$14,225Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Alagoas first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 44-50% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 29-31% and all other tested candidates below 5%. This positioning reflects sustained government approval ratings near 52-58% in the state alongside a fragmented opposition field that includes lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. National aggregates similarly place Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by several points. Trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% implied probability for Lula finishing first accounts for these consistent state-level results, though shifts could still arise from late campaign developments, turnout variations in the Northeast, or unforeseen legal or health events before the October vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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