Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads NY-04 Democratic primary trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability, bolstered by her substantial fundraising edge—over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' under $30,000 each—and backing from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (13.5%), Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.4%) cite Gillen's January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, viewed by progressives as enabling deportations, but their fragmented field splits opposition ahead of the June 23 primary. No public polls exist, and low-turnout House primaries historically favor incumbents with established infrastructure.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLaura Gillen 82%
Nicholas Sciretta 14%
Taylor Darling 4.2%
Gian Jones <1%
$18,621 Wol.
$18,621 Wol.
Jun 23, 2026
Laura Gillen
82%
Nicholas Sciretta
14%
Taylor Darling
4%
Gian Jones
<1%
Laura Gillen 82%
Nicholas Sciretta 14%
Taylor Darling 4.2%
Gian Jones <1%
$18,621 Wol.
$18,621 Wol.
Jun 23, 2026
Laura Gillen
$6,213 Wol.
82%
Nicholas Sciretta
$8,666 Wol.
14%
Taylor Darling
$2,106 Wol.
4%
Gian Jones
$1,636 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads NY-04 Democratic primary trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability, bolstered by her substantial fundraising edge—over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' under $30,000 each—and backing from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (13.5%), Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.4%) cite Gillen's January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, viewed by progressives as enabling deportations, but their fragmented field splits opposition ahead of the June 23 primary. No public polls exist, and low-turnout House primaries historically favor incumbents with established infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,621Data zakończenia
Jun 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads NY-04 Democratic primary trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability, bolstered by her substantial fundraising edge—over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' under $30,000 each—and backing from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (13.5%), Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.4%) cite Gillen's January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, viewed by progressives as enabling deportations, but their fragmented field splits opposition ahead of the June 23 primary. No public polls exist, and low-turnout House primaries historically favor incumbents with established infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$18,621Data zakończenia
Jun 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads NY-04 Democratic primary trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability, bolstered by her substantial fundraising edge—over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' under $30,000 each—and backing from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. Challengers Nicholas Sciretta (13.5%), Taylor Darling (3.5%), and Gian Jones (0.4%) cite Gillen's January 2026 vote for DHS funding including ICE appropriations, viewed by progressives as enabling deportations, but their fragmented field splits opposition ahead of the June 23 primary. No public polls exist, and low-turnout House primaries historically favor incumbents with established infrastructure.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania