Traders see a 96.2% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, driven by the lack of large-scale amphibious buildup, sustained high-alert mobilization, or acute diplomatic ruptures that would precede such an operation. Chinese military activity has remained centered on routine exercises and gray-zone pressure rather than crossing into invasion thresholds, while continued U.S. and allied arms deliveries and security assurances reinforce deterrence. Deep economic linkages and semiconductor supply-chain vulnerabilities add further restraint. Scenarios that could still alter the odds within the brief remaining window include abrupt leadership shifts in Beijing, a sharp Taiwanese policy departure, or unexpected U.S. strategic withdrawal, though none have materialized in recent months.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy Chiny dokonają inwazji na Tajwan do końca 2026 roku?
Czy Chiny dokonają inwazji na Tajwan do końca 2026 roku?
Tak
$39,887,725 Wol.
$39,887,725 Wol.
Tak
$39,887,725 Wol.
$39,887,725 Wol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders see a 96.2% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, driven by the lack of large-scale amphibious buildup, sustained high-alert mobilization, or acute diplomatic ruptures that would precede such an operation. Chinese military activity has remained centered on routine exercises and gray-zone pressure rather than crossing into invasion thresholds, while continued U.S. and allied arms deliveries and security assurances reinforce deterrence. Deep economic linkages and semiconductor supply-chain vulnerabilities add further restraint. Scenarios that could still alter the odds within the brief remaining window include abrupt leadership shifts in Beijing, a sharp Taiwanese policy departure, or unexpected U.S. strategic withdrawal, though none have materialized in recent months.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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