Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that Michigan voters will reject the automatic constitutional convention question on the November 2026 ballot because the measure has faced consistent, large-margin defeats in prior cycles (1978, 1994, and 2010) under the same Article XII, Section 3 process. Recent developments reinforce this outlook, including unified opposition from business, labor, and democracy organizations that cite risks of an open-ended rewrite and uncertainty over delegate selection. With the election roughly three months away and no major polling shifts or organized campaign momentum favoring approval, the “wisdom of crowds” reflected in current pricing aligns with historical base rates for similar statewide convention referrals. Late developments such as unexpected scandals, turnout anomalies, or sudden high-profile endorsements could still alter the trajectory, though none have materialized to date.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
Rynek otwarty: Mar 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that Michigan voters will reject the automatic constitutional convention question on the November 2026 ballot because the measure has faced consistent, large-margin defeats in prior cycles (1978, 1994, and 2010) under the same Article XII, Section 3 process. Recent developments reinforce this outlook, including unified opposition from business, labor, and democracy organizations that cite risks of an open-ended rewrite and uncertainty over delegate selection. With the election roughly three months away and no major polling shifts or organized campaign momentum favoring approval, the “wisdom of crowds” reflected in current pricing aligns with historical base rates for similar statewide convention referrals. Late developments such as unexpected scandals, turnout anomalies, or sudden high-profile endorsements could still alter the trajectory, though none have materialized to date.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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