Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that Michigan voters will reject the automatic constitutional convention question on the November 2026 ballot because the measure has faced consistent, large-margin defeats in prior cycles (1978, 1994, and 2010) under the same Article XII, Section 3 process. Recent developments reinforce this outlook, including unified opposition from business, labor, and democracy organizations that cite risks of an open-ended rewrite and uncertainty over delegate selection. With the election roughly three months away and no major polling shifts or organized campaign momentum favoring approval, the “wisdom of crowds” reflected in current pricing aligns with historical base rates for similar statewide convention referrals. Late developments such as unexpected scandals, turnout anomalies, or sudden high-profile endorsements could still alter the trajectory, though none have materialized to date.