The Iranian regime has demonstrated institutional resilience following the violent suppression of nationwide protests that erupted in late December 2025 over economic grievances and currency collapse. Security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, maintained loyalty and quelled unrest through mass arrests and lethal force without internal defections, even as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated during the subsequent 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict involving airstrikes on nuclear and military targets. A rapid internal succession process installed a new supreme leader, while the regime reasserted authority through renewed pledges of allegiance from military and clerical institutions amid a fragile ceasefire. Ongoing economic pressures and preparations for potential renewed demonstrations have not yet produced coordinated uprisings or leadership fractures capable of triggering collapse before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$17,911,806 Wol.
$17,911,806 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$17,911,806 Wol.
$17,911,806 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has demonstrated institutional resilience following the violent suppression of nationwide protests that erupted in late December 2025 over economic grievances and currency collapse. Security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, maintained loyalty and quelled unrest through mass arrests and lethal force without internal defections, even as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated during the subsequent 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict involving airstrikes on nuclear and military targets. A rapid internal succession process installed a new supreme leader, while the regime reasserted authority through renewed pledges of allegiance from military and clerical institutions amid a fragile ceasefire. Ongoing economic pressures and preparations for potential renewed demonstrations have not yet produced coordinated uprisings or leadership fractures capable of triggering collapse before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$17,911,806Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has demonstrated institutional resilience following the violent suppression of nationwide protests that erupted in late December 2025 over economic grievances and currency collapse. Security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, maintained loyalty and quelled unrest through mass arrests and lethal force without internal defections, even as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated during the subsequent 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict involving airstrikes on nuclear and military targets. A rapid internal succession process installed a new supreme leader, while the regime reasserted authority through renewed pledges of allegiance from military and clerical institutions amid a fragile ceasefire. Ongoing economic pressures and preparations for potential renewed demonstrations have not yet produced coordinated uprisings or leadership fractures capable of triggering collapse before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$17,911,806Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime has demonstrated institutional resilience following the violent suppression of nationwide protests that erupted in late December 2025 over economic grievances and currency collapse. Security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, maintained loyalty and quelled unrest through mass arrests and lethal force without internal defections, even as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated during the subsequent 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict involving airstrikes on nuclear and military targets. A rapid internal succession process installed a new supreme leader, while the regime reasserted authority through renewed pledges of allegiance from military and clerical institutions amid a fragile ceasefire. Ongoing economic pressures and preparations for potential renewed demonstrations have not yet produced coordinated uprisings or leadership fractures capable of triggering collapse before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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