Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses and Revolutionary Guard positions during heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions, have kept the long-standing territorial dispute with the UAE in focus. Iran has held effective control since seizing the island in 1971 and continues to station missiles, fast boats, and air defenses there despite the attacks. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects the absence of confirmed invasions, occupations, or diplomatic transfers, with analysts noting high barriers including Iranian military reinforcement and the risk of wider escalation. Diplomatic statements from the UAE and Gulf partners continue to assert claims without altering on-ground realities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Ilha Abu Musa não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
A Ilha Abu Musa não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
$87,909 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 de agosto
1%
$87,909 Vol.
31 de agosto
$81,241 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses and Revolutionary Guard positions during heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions, have kept the long-standing territorial dispute with the UAE in focus. Iran has held effective control since seizing the island in 1971 and continues to station missiles, fast boats, and air defenses there despite the attacks. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects the absence of confirmed invasions, occupations, or diplomatic transfers, with analysts noting high barriers including Iranian military reinforcement and the risk of wider escalation. Diplomatic statements from the UAE and Gulf partners continue to assert claims without altering on-ground realities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$87,909Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses and Revolutionary Guard positions during heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions, have kept the long-standing territorial dispute with the UAE in focus. Iran has held effective control since seizing the island in 1971 and continues to station missiles, fast boats, and air defenses there despite the attacks. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects the absence of confirmed invasions, occupations, or diplomatic transfers, with analysts noting high barriers including Iranian military reinforcement and the risk of wider escalation. Diplomatic statements from the UAE and Gulf partners continue to assert claims without altering on-ground realities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$87,909Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses and Revolutionary Guard positions during heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions, have kept the long-standing territorial dispute with the UAE in focus. Iran has held effective control since seizing the island in 1971 and continues to station missiles, fast boats, and air defenses there despite the attacks. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects the absence of confirmed invasions, occupations, or diplomatic transfers, with analysts noting high barriers including Iranian military reinforcement and the risk of wider escalation. Diplomatic statements from the UAE and Gulf partners continue to assert claims without altering on-ground realities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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