**Official INDEC data released on May 14 confirmed Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI inflation at 2.6% month-over-month (MoM), down sharply from March's 3.4% and aligning precisely with the Central Bank's REM survey median expectation of 2.6% as well as private forecasts near 2.5%.** This deceleration, fueled by sustained fiscal surpluses, monetary tightening under Economy Minister Caputo, and subdued regulated price adjustments, has locked in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for the 2.5–2.7% bin, reflecting unanimous trader consensus backed by real capital. While year-to-date inflation stands at roughly 12.3%, the trend supports Milei's disinflation narrative. Only an unprecedented data revision—rare under INDEC protocols—or audit dispute could challenge this positioning ahead of May's release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2.5–2.7% 100.0%
≤2.1% <1%
2.2–2.4% <1%
2.8–3.0% <1%
$16,431 Vol.
$16,431 Vol.
14 mai 2026
≤2.1%
No
2.2–2.4%
No
2.5–2.7%
Yes
2.8–3.0%
No
3.1–3.3%
No
3.4–3.6%
No
3.7–3.9%
No
4.0%+
No
2.5–2.7% 100.0%
≤2.1% <1%
2.2–2.4% <1%
2.8–3.0% <1%
$16,431 Vol.
$16,431 Vol.
14 mai 2026
≤2.1%
$1,832 Vol.
No
2.2–2.4%
$1,866 Vol.
No
2.5–2.7%
$3,235 Vol.
Yes
2.8–3.0%
$2,975 Vol.
No
3.1–3.3%
$2,366 Vol.
No
3.4–3.6%
$1,378 Vol.
No
3.7–3.9%
$1,785 Vol.
No
4.0%+
$993 Vol.
No
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Official INDEC data released on May 14 confirmed Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI inflation at 2.6% month-over-month (MoM), down sharply from March's 3.4% and aligning precisely with the Central Bank's REM survey median expectation of 2.6% as well as private forecasts near 2.5%.** This deceleration, fueled by sustained fiscal surpluses, monetary tightening under Economy Minister Caputo, and subdued regulated price adjustments, has locked in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for the 2.5–2.7% bin, reflecting unanimous trader consensus backed by real capital. While year-to-date inflation stands at roughly 12.3%, the trend supports Milei's disinflation narrative. Only an unprecedented data revision—rare under INDEC protocols—or audit dispute could challenge this positioning ahead of May's release.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 20, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$16,431Data de Término
14 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 20, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Official INDEC data released on May 14 confirmed Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI inflation at 2.6% month-over-month (MoM), down sharply from March's 3.4% and aligning precisely with the Central Bank's REM survey median expectation of 2.6% as well as private forecasts near 2.5%.** This deceleration, fueled by sustained fiscal surpluses, monetary tightening under Economy Minister Caputo, and subdued regulated price adjustments, has locked in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for the 2.5–2.7% bin, reflecting unanimous trader consensus backed by real capital. While year-to-date inflation stands at roughly 12.3%, the trend supports Milei's disinflation narrative. Only an unprecedented data revision—rare under INDEC protocols—or audit dispute could challenge this positioning ahead of May's release.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$16,431Data de Término
14 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 20, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
**Official INDEC data released on May 14 confirmed Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI inflation at 2.6% month-over-month (MoM), down sharply from March's 3.4% and aligning precisely with the Central Bank's REM survey median expectation of 2.6% as well as private forecasts near 2.5%.** This deceleration, fueled by sustained fiscal surpluses, monetary tightening under Economy Minister Caputo, and subdued regulated price adjustments, has locked in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for the 2.5–2.7% bin, reflecting unanimous trader consensus backed by real capital. While year-to-date inflation stands at roughly 12.3%, the trend supports Milei's disinflation narrative. Only an unprecedented data revision—rare under INDEC protocols—or audit dispute could challenge this positioning ahead of May's release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions