Recent inflation data holding at 6% year-over-year, fueled by temporary fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions, alongside the Bank of Russia's July 25-basis-point cut to 14% and upward revision of its 2026 inflation forecast to 6-7%, anchor trader expectations for a pause at the September 11 meeting. Analysts highlight stable underlying inflation near 4-5% annualized and decelerating lending growth but note risks from expansionary fiscal policy and elevated inflation expectations, supporting the 62.5% implied probability of no change over a further reduction. Political calls for easing contrast with the central bank's emphasis on gradual policy adjustment given supply constraints and moderate economic growth.