Recent Bank of Russia communications and data releases have shaped trader positioning ahead of the September 11 meeting. After the July 24 reduction of 25 basis points to 14.00 percent, the central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 6.0–7.0 percent and its projected average key rate path to 14.5–14.6 percent, citing temporary fuel-price pressures, elevated inflation expectations, and a more expansionary fiscal stance. Underlying inflation measures stayed near 4–5 percent annualized while lending and demand indicators moderated, supporting the current 62.5 percent probability of no change as the dominant outcome. A further decrease retains 37.5 percent odds if incoming prints confirm sustained disinflation and subdued growth, whereas an increase remains remote at 1.3 percent given the ongoing easing cycle and baseline projections.