Skip to main content
icon for Tsunami azul em 2026?
Política·Congresso

Tsunami azul em 2026?

icon for Tsunami azul em 2026?
Política·Congresso

Tsunami azul em 2026?

Sim

38% chance
Polymarket

$27,572 Vol.

Sim

38% chance
Polymarket

$27,572 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfRecent generic ballot polls, including AtlasIntel's May 12 survey showing Democrats ahead 54.6%-40.1% (+14.5) and aggregates like Pollfinity projecting Democrats at 52%-48% with a net swing of +3.8%, indicate a Democratic edge translating to modest House gains toward majority control (e.g., 227-208 seats) rather than a tsunami requiring overwhelming flips like 20+ net seats. Earlier special election overperformance has moderated amid GOP primary successes, such as Trump-endorsed challengers ousting incumbents in Indiana, and a Virginia court ruling invalidating Democratic gerrymandered maps. Senate forecasts remain competitive with Democrats holding a narrow path in battlegrounds like Georgia, underscoring trader consensus against a decisive blue wave despite historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Summer primaries loom as key catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Volume
$27,572
Data de Término
30 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfRecent generic ballot polls, including AtlasIntel's May 12 survey showing Democrats ahead 54.6%-40.1% (+14.5) and aggregates like Pollfinity projecting Democrats at 52%-48% with a net swing of +3.8%, indicate a Democratic edge translating to modest House gains toward majority control (e.g., 227-208 seats) rather than a tsunami requiring overwhelming flips like 20+ net seats. Earlier special election overperformance has moderated amid GOP primary successes, such as Trump-endorsed challengers ousting incumbents in Indiana, and a Virginia court ruling invalidating Democratic gerrymandered maps. Senate forecasts remain competitive with Democrats holding a narrow path in battlegrounds like Georgia, underscoring trader consensus against a decisive blue wave despite historical midterm penalties for the president's party. Summer primaries loom as key catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Volume
$27,572
Data de Término
30 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Tsunami azul em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tsunami azul em 2026?" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Tsunami azul em 2026?" has generated $27.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Tsunami azul em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tsunami azul em 2026?" is "Tsunami azul em 2026?" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tsunami azul em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.