Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican David Pan, reflecting the district's entrenched partisan lean in central Orange County communities such as Santa Ana and Anaheim. The area's voter registration, demographic profile with a high share of Latino residents, and historical election margins exceeding 60 percent for Democrats underpin trader consensus around a 95 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. Correa's multiple prior reelections and fundraising edge further reinforce this positioning. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen development such as a major personal or ethical issue for the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a pronounced national Republican surge capable of overcoming the structural D+10 or greater partisan voting index.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-46
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-46
$17,432 Vol.
$17,432 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$17,432 Vol.
$17,432 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$4,636 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,795 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican David Pan, reflecting the district's entrenched partisan lean in central Orange County communities such as Santa Ana and Anaheim. The area's voter registration, demographic profile with a high share of Latino residents, and historical election margins exceeding 60 percent for Democrats underpin trader consensus around a 95 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. Correa's multiple prior reelections and fundraising edge further reinforce this positioning. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen development such as a major personal or ethical issue for the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a pronounced national Republican surge capable of overcoming the structural D+10 or greater partisan voting index.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$17,432Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican David Pan, reflecting the district's entrenched partisan lean in central Orange County communities such as Santa Ana and Anaheim. The area's voter registration, demographic profile with a high share of Latino residents, and historical election margins exceeding 60 percent for Democrats underpin trader consensus around a 95 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. Correa's multiple prior reelections and fundraising edge further reinforce this positioning. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen development such as a major personal or ethical issue for the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a pronounced national Republican surge capable of overcoming the structural D+10 or greater partisan voting index.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,432Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican David Pan, reflecting the district's entrenched partisan lean in central Orange County communities such as Santa Ana and Anaheim. The area's voter registration, demographic profile with a high share of Latino residents, and historical election margins exceeding 60 percent for Democrats underpin trader consensus around a 95 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. Correa's multiple prior reelections and fundraising edge further reinforce this positioning. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen development such as a major personal or ethical issue for the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a pronounced national Republican surge capable of overcoming the structural D+10 or greater partisan voting index.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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