Recent July 2026 CPI data showing a 0.2% core increase and 0.1% headline rise have anchored trader expectations for the upcoming Core PCE release, with the 0.2% MoM outcome commanding a 50.5% implied probability as markets price in continued moderate price pressures. June's actual 0.1% Core PCE reading and Cleveland Fed nowcasts around 0.15-0.25% further support clustering around 0.2-0.3%, while softer energy and shelter components in CPI have tempered upside risks. With the PCE report due August 26, traders are weighing these figures against persistent services inflation and labor market stability ahead of potential FOMC shifts, viewing the distribution as consistent with gradual disinflation rather than reacceleration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0.2% 51%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 13.0%
0.4%+ 4.7%
$26,509 Vol.
$26,509 Vol.
26 ago 2026
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
13%
0.2%
51%
0.3%
31%
0.4%+
5%
0.2% 51%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 13.0%
0.4%+ 4.7%
$26,509 Vol.
$26,509 Vol.
26 ago 2026
≤-0.2%
$606 Vol.
<1%
-0.1%
$807 Vol.
<1%
0.0%
$970 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$2,165 Vol.
13%
0.2%
$2,209 Vol.
51%
0.3%
$16,685 Vol.
31%
0.4%+
$3,067 Vol.
5%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 CPI data showing a 0.2% core increase and 0.1% headline rise have anchored trader expectations for the upcoming Core PCE release, with the 0.2% MoM outcome commanding a 50.5% implied probability as markets price in continued moderate price pressures. June's actual 0.1% Core PCE reading and Cleveland Fed nowcasts around 0.15-0.25% further support clustering around 0.2-0.3%, while softer energy and shelter components in CPI have tempered upside risks. With the PCE report due August 26, traders are weighing these figures against persistent services inflation and labor market stability ahead of potential FOMC shifts, viewing the distribution as consistent with gradual disinflation rather than reacceleration.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$26,509Data de Término
26 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 CPI data showing a 0.2% core increase and 0.1% headline rise have anchored trader expectations for the upcoming Core PCE release, with the 0.2% MoM outcome commanding a 50.5% implied probability as markets price in continued moderate price pressures. June's actual 0.1% Core PCE reading and Cleveland Fed nowcasts around 0.15-0.25% further support clustering around 0.2-0.3%, while softer energy and shelter components in CPI have tempered upside risks. With the PCE report due August 26, traders are weighing these figures against persistent services inflation and labor market stability ahead of potential FOMC shifts, viewing the distribution as consistent with gradual disinflation rather than reacceleration.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$26,509Data de Término
26 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 CPI data showing a 0.2% core increase and 0.1% headline rise have anchored trader expectations for the upcoming Core PCE release, with the 0.2% MoM outcome commanding a 50.5% implied probability as markets price in continued moderate price pressures. June's actual 0.1% Core PCE reading and Cleveland Fed nowcasts around 0.15-0.25% further support clustering around 0.2-0.3%, while softer energy and shelter components in CPI have tempered upside risks. With the PCE report due August 26, traders are weighing these figures against persistent services inflation and labor market stability ahead of potential FOMC shifts, viewing the distribution as consistent with gradual disinflation rather than reacceleration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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