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Política·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia

icon for Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia
Política·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia

Prosperidade 97.8%

NaMA <1%

GPDP <1%

TPLF <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Prosperidade 97.8%

NaMA <1%

GPDP <1%

TPLF <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Prosperidade

Prosperidade

$3,776 Vol.

98%

icon for NaMA

NaMA

$1,515 Vol.

1%

icon for GPDP

GPDP

$1,764 Vol.

1%

icon for TPLF

TPLF

$1,160 Vol.

1%

icon for EZEMA

EZEMA

$1,050 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).The Prosperity Party’s commanding position stems from its incumbency advantages under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, including control of state institutions and a first-past-the-post electoral system that favors the ruling coalition. Recent developments, such as the party running unopposed in dozens of constituencies and ongoing restrictions on opposition activity amid conflicts in Amhara and Tigray regions, have further consolidated its lead. Opposition groups including GPDP, NaMA, TPLF, and EZEMA remain fragmented with limited national reach, while legislative changes have tightened media oversight and lowered parliamentary thresholds without substantially broadening competition. Trader consensus reflects this structural dominance ahead of the June 2026 vote. Potential shifts could arise from major security deteriorations preventing polling in key areas, successful last-minute opposition coalitions, or international diplomatic pressure prompting greater electoral access, though such developments remain uncertain given the current institutional landscape.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
Volume
$9,266
Data de Término
1 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).The Prosperity Party’s commanding position stems from its incumbency advantages under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, including control of state institutions and a first-past-the-post electoral system that favors the ruling coalition. Recent developments, such as the party running unopposed in dozens of constituencies and ongoing restrictions on opposition activity amid conflicts in Amhara and Tigray regions, have further consolidated its lead. Opposition groups including GPDP, NaMA, TPLF, and EZEMA remain fragmented with limited national reach, while legislative changes have tightened media oversight and lowered parliamentary thresholds without substantially broadening competition. Trader consensus reflects this structural dominance ahead of the June 2026 vote. Potential shifts could arise from major security deteriorations preventing polling in key areas, successful last-minute opposition coalitions, or international diplomatic pressure prompting greater electoral access, though such developments remain uncertain given the current institutional landscape.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
Volume
$9,266
Data de Término
1 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Prosperidade" at 98%, followed by "NaMA" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 16, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia" is "Prosperidade" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "NaMA" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.