Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts center 2026 U.S. real GDP growth around 2.2–2.3 percent on an annual or Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on the 2.0–2.5 percent band. The September 2026 SEP raised the median estimate to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent in June, citing resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have offset Q2's soft 1.5 percent annualized pace and higher policy rates. Q3 nowcasts point to a rebound near 2.8 percent, while sticky core inflation and the recent federal funds rate hike to the 3.75–4 percent range introduce downside risks. Trader consensus reflects these balanced fundamentals, with limited probability assigned to sub-2 percent or sharply higher outcomes given the economy's proximity to long-run potential.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2,0–2,5% 64%
>2,5% 28.5%
1,5–2,0% 9.8%
0,5–1,0% 1.4%
$74,245 Vol.
$74,245 Vol.
28 jan 2027
<0,5%
1%
0,5–1,0%
1%
1,0–1,5%
1%
1,5–2,0%
10%
2,0–2,5%
64%
>2,5%
29%
2,0–2,5% 64%
>2,5% 28.5%
1,5–2,0% 9.8%
0,5–1,0% 1.4%
$74,245 Vol.
$74,245 Vol.
28 jan 2027
<0,5%
$8,216 Vol.
1%
0,5–1,0%
$17,826 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,5%
$4,484 Vol.
1%
1,5–2,0%
$8,825 Vol.
10%
2,0–2,5%
$15,601 Vol.
64%
>2,5%
$19,294 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts center 2026 U.S. real GDP growth around 2.2–2.3 percent on an annual or Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on the 2.0–2.5 percent band. The September 2026 SEP raised the median estimate to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent in June, citing resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have offset Q2's soft 1.5 percent annualized pace and higher policy rates. Q3 nowcasts point to a rebound near 2.8 percent, while sticky core inflation and the recent federal funds rate hike to the 3.75–4 percent range introduce downside risks. Trader consensus reflects these balanced fundamentals, with limited probability assigned to sub-2 percent or sharply higher outcomes given the economy's proximity to long-run potential.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$74,245Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts center 2026 U.S. real GDP growth around 2.2–2.3 percent on an annual or Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on the 2.0–2.5 percent band. The September 2026 SEP raised the median estimate to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent in June, citing resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have offset Q2's soft 1.5 percent annualized pace and higher policy rates. Q3 nowcasts point to a rebound near 2.8 percent, while sticky core inflation and the recent federal funds rate hike to the 3.75–4 percent range introduce downside risks. Trader consensus reflects these balanced fundamentals, with limited probability assigned to sub-2 percent or sharply higher outcomes given the economy's proximity to long-run potential.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$74,245Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts center 2026 U.S. real GDP growth around 2.2–2.3 percent on an annual or Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on the 2.0–2.5 percent band. The September 2026 SEP raised the median estimate to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent in June, citing resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have offset Q2's soft 1.5 percent annualized pace and higher policy rates. Q3 nowcasts point to a rebound near 2.8 percent, while sticky core inflation and the recent federal funds rate hike to the 3.75–4 percent range introduce downside risks. Trader consensus reflects these balanced fundamentals, with limited probability assigned to sub-2 percent or sharply higher outcomes given the economy's proximity to long-run potential.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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