**Trader sentiment for Ankara's June 15 high temperature centers on 24–26°C, which together command over 90% of the market-implied probability.** This range aligns closely with the latest numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS model outputs, which project a typical early-summer high under mostly clear skies and light westerly flow. Seasonal climatology places Ankara’s mid-June average daily maximum near 26–28°C, with recent days showing highs of 27–29°C. Current model guidance indicates modest cooling from a transient upper-level trough or increased boundary-layer mixing, keeping the peak just below the long-term mean. Low precipitation risk and moderate humidity further support limited diurnal warming. The tight clustering around 25°C (42%) and 26°C (29.5%) reflects high confidence in the 24–27°C envelope, with only minor tail risk priced for warmer or cooler outliers. Updated model runs over the next 12–24 hours—particularly the 00Z and 12Z cycles—will be the key catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.