Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, producing mostly clear skies, light northerly winds, and modest daytime heating that favors a Madrid maximum near 22–23°C on May 17. Official guidance from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología aligns with this range, showing afternoon temperatures climbing from overnight lows around 11°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover or moisture advection. These meteorological factors explain the market-implied probabilities clustering tightly around 22°C (46.5%) and 23°C (25.0%), while lower or higher thresholds reflect the narrow uncertainty band inherent in short-range temperature modeling for central Spain. Traders will watch real-time AEMET observations through the afternoon for any final adjustments before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 17 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 17 de maio?
22°C 45%
23°C 26%
21°C 22%
24°C 10%
$13,372 Vol.
$13,372 Vol.
17 mai 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
5%
21°C
22%
22°C
45%
23°C
26%
24°C
10%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 45%
23°C 26%
21°C 22%
24°C 10%
$13,372 Vol.
$13,372 Vol.
17 mai 2026
17°C or below
$1,678 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,155 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,363 Vol.
1%
20°C
$981 Vol.
5%
21°C
$2,045 Vol.
22%
22°C
$1,859 Vol.
45%
23°C
$1,399 Vol.
26%
24°C
$777 Vol.
10%
25°C
$634 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$566 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$914 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, producing mostly clear skies, light northerly winds, and modest daytime heating that favors a Madrid maximum near 22–23°C on May 17. Official guidance from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología aligns with this range, showing afternoon temperatures climbing from overnight lows around 11°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover or moisture advection. These meteorological factors explain the market-implied probabilities clustering tightly around 22°C (46.5%) and 23°C (25.0%), while lower or higher thresholds reflect the narrow uncertainty band inherent in short-range temperature modeling for central Spain. Traders will watch real-time AEMET observations through the afternoon for any final adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$13,372Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, producing mostly clear skies, light northerly winds, and modest daytime heating that favors a Madrid maximum near 22–23°C on May 17. Official guidance from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología aligns with this range, showing afternoon temperatures climbing from overnight lows around 11°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover or moisture advection. These meteorological factors explain the market-implied probabilities clustering tightly around 22°C (46.5%) and 23°C (25.0%), while lower or higher thresholds reflect the narrow uncertainty band inherent in short-range temperature modeling for central Spain. Traders will watch real-time AEMET observations through the afternoon for any final adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,372Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, producing mostly clear skies, light northerly winds, and modest daytime heating that favors a Madrid maximum near 22–23°C on May 17. Official guidance from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología aligns with this range, showing afternoon temperatures climbing from overnight lows around 11°C under stable anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover or moisture advection. These meteorological factors explain the market-implied probabilities clustering tightly around 22°C (46.5%) and 23°C (25.0%), while lower or higher thresholds reflect the narrow uncertainty band inherent in short-range temperature modeling for central Spain. Traders will watch real-time AEMET observations through the afternoon for any final adjustments before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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