Stable high-pressure ridging over the Iberian Peninsula is anchoring mild conditions for Madrid on May 17, with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs converging on a daily maximum near 22–23 °C. Persistent northerly flow and limited insolation from residual cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with the 21 °C peak recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport on May 14. These factors keep the market-implied probabilities highest for 22 °C (39 %) and 23 °C (25.5 %), while climatological mid-May averages of 23–24 °C remain just out of reach unless ridge breakdown occurs overnight. Official AEMET observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 17 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 17 de maio?
22°C 40%
23°C 25%
21°C 20%
24°C 11%
NOVO
NOVO
17 mai 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
6%
21°C
20%
22°C
40%
23°C
25%
24°C
11%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 40%
23°C 25%
21°C 20%
24°C 11%
NOVO
NOVO
17 mai 2026
17°C or below
$1,103 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$424 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$500 Vol.
1%
20°C
$510 Vol.
6%
21°C
$1,166 Vol.
20%
22°C
$858 Vol.
40%
23°C
$507 Vol.
25%
24°C
$373 Vol.
11%
25°C
$396 Vol.
1%
26°C
$218 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$156 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Stable high-pressure ridging over the Iberian Peninsula is anchoring mild conditions for Madrid on May 17, with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs converging on a daily maximum near 22–23 °C. Persistent northerly flow and limited insolation from residual cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with the 21 °C peak recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport on May 14. These factors keep the market-implied probabilities highest for 22 °C (39 %) and 23 °C (25.5 %), while climatological mid-May averages of 23–24 °C remain just out of reach unless ridge breakdown occurs overnight. Official AEMET observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,211Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Stable high-pressure ridging over the Iberian Peninsula is anchoring mild conditions for Madrid on May 17, with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs converging on a daily maximum near 22–23 °C. Persistent northerly flow and limited insolation from residual cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with the 21 °C peak recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport on May 14. These factors keep the market-implied probabilities highest for 22 °C (39 %) and 23 °C (25.5 %), while climatological mid-May averages of 23–24 °C remain just out of reach unless ridge breakdown occurs overnight. Official AEMET observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,211Data de Término
17 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDStable high-pressure ridging over the Iberian Peninsula is anchoring mild conditions for Madrid on May 17, with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs converging on a daily maximum near 22–23 °C. Persistent northerly flow and limited insolation from residual cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating, consistent with the 21 °C peak recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport on May 14. These factors keep the market-implied probabilities highest for 22 °C (39 %) and 23 °C (25.5 %), while climatological mid-May averages of 23–24 °C remain just out of reach unless ridge breakdown occurs overnight. Official AEMET observations tomorrow will resolve the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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